Two talks about rock resources and truth

Two Band-aids talk about rock resources and truth.


LOL.....
Marco G.

Breakout - Brent Up - Gold Up - Not IMHO

Louise Yamada opines that Brent is moving up and Gold should consolidate before moving up futher.

IMHO, gold is falling lower before any movements.

Goombarh

Burnstone Gold Mine GBG - Stoping detail

v interesting,

Marco G.

Happy Investing in 2012

Happy New Year and Investing in 2012!

As an example of what you may expect, if you get in on my email list, here it is, a recent commentary:

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Goombarh 73 - February 2, 2012

Good Morning,

It is time to get back to business folks, if you are interested in the stock market.

Since October, the general markets have recovered significantly.  The S&P500 is now at 1333, whereas the high was 1370 for last year, the highest since the 2008 crash.  That is if you were in the general markets, your portfolio should now be close to the highest since 2008, if you are an average investor.  Here is the headline from Bloomberg this morning:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/global-strategists-abandoning-bearish-views-after-missing-rally.html

This means there is a lot of big money, still on the sidelines that will come into the markets later and assist with driving things upwards.  Also, this is a presidential election year, and no, the president will not allow the economy to falter during his re-election push.

For myself, I invest in the riskier small cap resource stocks, and no I am not back to the highest since 2008.  The barometer for my portfolio may be the TSXV index which is at 1640 presently, a good distance of 33% off from the peak of 2464 achieved in February 2011, the highest since 2008.  In fact, I am a good 50% off from my own peak achieved in about March 2011.  What I hope to have learned from this latest episode of the markets gyrating downwards, is to take a portion of the winnings off the table, when the market is good.   This is a very important lesson to take to heart.  Preserve the cash, and redeploy later, when the markets are down.

Now back to business, the markets are moving upwards and the investor needs to be in and positioned to be able to reap the possible future gains.  Let me refresh myself as to my goals and market positioning guidelines.  Following are some guiding market thoughts collected over time.

Goombarh Strategy 2012

1.      Know something that will be valued higher in the future.

a.       shale oil - Bakken, Kurdistan oil (held back with politics)

b.      Folded porous carbonate structure allowing high producing level -Shoal Point Energy (SHP, SHPNF) - huge multi-billion barrel oil prospect; oil tests coming in 2012 and running right now.

2.      Track the trend of a commodity that is moving higher or may have a future shortage.

a.       oil, and metals; take a look at Zinc

b.      potash - Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) - shallow open pit capable deposit; 43-101 coming.

3.      Consider that the general markets are in uptrend before investing.

a.       S&P now moving upwards.

4.      Leverage carefully.

a.       Warrants, and such

b.      Petroamerica Warrants (PTAWF)

5.      Lower priced stocks move higher with easier gains.

a.       TSXV stocks, explorers and developers with solid management and properties

b.      Developers becoming producers - Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) - producer growing larger, Great Basin Gold (GBG) - solid management and will come on stream with two producing gold mines, Westernzagros (WZR, WZGRF) - Sarquala producing 5000 barrels per day, Mil Qasm test and Kudimir 2 are coming in 2012.

6.      Consider marginal players, with bad news factored in and a change in outlook.

a.       Marginal stocks have the highest gains in a turnaround. - Petroamerica, (PTA, PTAXF) - turning into producer.

7.      Consider that market judges on growth prospects rather than absolute value

a.       market is not rational and will move on hype; so consider when to get out!  Already have getting out in mind, when you are getting in.

As to what is exciting recently, take a look at Shoal Point Energy.  Here is the chart from yesterday:

SHP has broken out and is now at .40 cents.  Here is a link to their latest corporate presentation:

http://shoalpointenergy.com/pdfs/SHPAGM%20Presentation%20Jan%2026,%202012.pdf

I am sitting on my hands (not selling), and if it is not too optimistic, this stock may be a possible home run.

Petroamerica (PTA, PTAXF) may be readying themselves for a big run. 

Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) has crashed lower, possibly on the decline in sentiment about potash pricing and sentiment about Ethiopia as being safe place to invest in, but they are presently drilling and should have a 43-101 within 6 months.

Westernzagros (WZR, WZRFF) is being accumulated by persons unknown and are awaiting news from Mil Qasm and Kudamir 2 (being drilled by Talsiman Energy).  This is a good longer term stock in my opinion.

Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) will move with Silver prices higher.  They have strong management and will be able to deliver on their promises of increased production, but it will take more capital and time.

Oh, attached is my latest take on Great Basin Gold (GBG, which I have posted on Seeking Alpha.  This would be my safest longer term play.  Great management and gold production coming on-line. 

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

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To be on my email list, send your email address to goombarh at gmail.com.  It is that simple, and I will not disclose your address to anyone.

Small Cap Explorers for Fall Bull Run

For the smaller mining and resources equities, that are riskier, but that have had recent news, I presently hold positions in the following, in alphabetical order:

Avnel Gold Mining (AVNZF, TSX:AVK) is partnered with IAMGOLD (IAG) in their Kalana Gold mine in Mali, Africa.  IAMGOLD is the project operator.   Recent news.

Compliance Energy (CPYCF, TSX:CEC) is partnered with Itochu Corp. and LG International for 60% of the Raven coal deposit on Vancouver Island, Canada. Compliance also holds 17% of Copper Mountain, which just has started producing copper concentrate.  Recent news.

CuOro Resources (CRUOF, TSX:CUA) is drilling a high grade copper/gold sulphide prospect in Columbia.  Recent news. The Goombarh believes the history of this property bodes well for the company future.

Ethiopian Potash (ETPHF, TSX:FED) is a potash explorer in the Danakil Basin of Ethiopia.  They are adjacent to Allana Potash Corp (ALLRF) and South Boulder Mines (SBMSF) of Australia.  The deposit that they are looking to confirm is shallow, suitable for open pit extraction.  Recent news.

Primary Petroleum (PETEF, TSX:PIE) is a oil/gas explorer active in the Bakken formation in Alberta and Montana.  They hold large sections of prospective properties.  Recent news.

Tarsis Resources (TARSF, TSX:TCC) is a gold/metals project generator and explorer active in Mexico and the Yukon.  Kinross Gold has taken a 10% share of this company.  Recent news.

Tuscany International Drilling(TIDZF, TSX:TID) is a growing drilling services provider focused on South America and Africa.  They have just initiated a second acquisition to increase their service potential.  The Goombarh believes drilling services equities are much undervalued.

Vast Exploration (VSTFF, TSX:VST) is partnered with NIKO Resources (NKRSF) who is testing their oil/gas prospect in Kurdistan, Iraq.  This stock has dropped over 60% on this news release July 11, 2011.  The Goombarh has just tripled his holdings, due to the intermittent oil found and possible deepening of hole to test the Kometan formation..

Westernzagros Resources (WZGRF, TSX:WZR) is partnered with Talisman Energy (TLM) and has hit oil in Kurdistan, Iraq.  Westernzagros will drilling a their Mil Qasim - 1 prospect in the 3rd quarter and Talisman will be redrilling their Kurdamir 2 prospect by 4th quarter.

The investor is advised to perform their own due diligence as these small cap investments are risky.  For investing in these smaller mining and resources equities, I am expecting that most will turn out to dwindle to nothing but if only one exhibits good price appreciation, that will do just fine. 

Important Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained within this document reflect the personal views of the author and should be viewed as food for thought and amusement only. The author may from time to time have a position in any of the securities mentioned. There are no guarantees of the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Independent due diligence and discussions with one’s own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. These writings are not to be construed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. We do not request or receive compensation in any form in order to feature companies in this publication. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this document to any type of third party without the express permission of the author. This document may be quoted, in context, provided proper credit is given.

Stock Suggestions - Mining, Commodities - Tiny Caps

To get access to stuff like the following first, just get on my email list, just remember, this is information only you need to be careful with your own money!

The Goombarh
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Precious Metals, Miners And Commodities Are The Sectors To Be In

Once in a while, one comes across a good post that just seems to hit the nail on the head.  This posting by Dr. Duru on Seeking Alpha is one of them:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/277827-preparing-for-profits-in-a-resource-constrained-world

Now, one has to be careful about listening to only information that re-affirms one's own thoughts,

...

I presently hold positions in the following

...

Vast Exploration (VSTFF, TSX:VST) is partnered with NIKO Resources (NKRSF) who is testing their oil/gas prospect in Kurdistan, Iraq.  This stock has dropped over 60% on this news release July 11, 2011.  The Goombarh has just tripled his holdings, due to the intermittent oil found and possible deepening of hole to test the Kometan formation.

...etc.

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2011 Summer Bottom for Mining and Minerals is In!

Goombarh 64 - July 7, 2011

Good day,

I hope this note finds you well and enjoying your Summer.  A couple of good articles and the possible market bottom leads me to come out with this note.

Firstly, the Shanghai Composite appears to be leading the SP 500 to new highs:

The SSEC has bottomed on strong resistance level, and the Chinese tightening to reduce growth to 7~8% has now all been priced in.  The latest bank rate increase is also behind us, so the demand for commodities should continue.  As to precious metals, I hold the view, that we are continuing higher into the fall.  There is a strong analysis, that I am in agreement with, of the Chinese impact on the world economy going forward by Julian Philips:  The link is here:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/jul042011.html

The SP 500 is moving to new highs?

With the regular markets in a strong positive mood, this makes the riskier small miners, that I am interested in, all the more stronger.  There is a Ken Fisher, outlook, that makes a good general primer on what to expect for the second half of this year.  It is attached as a PDF document.

The TSX Venture ETF as a proxy for the Venture exchange has turned around:

The rebound in the Venture exchange has brought my portfolio back a bit from the declines, and now is possibly the beginning of a fall rush.  It does seem a bit early, compared to previous years, but Gold is strong, the SP 500 is strong and the Venture is rebounding.  Anyways, how can anyone predict the future?  The main point is that this is the time to be adding some speculative investments with the idea of good PR's coming and the Fall run for metals and commodities; it is just time to prepare for that.

The Agricultural ETFs, DAG, that I was monitoring have taken a fall, and now may be a good time to nibble.

I am playing around with the idea of using DAG as a cash holder.  The possible gains from DAG are good, but are not high enough for me compared to speculative miners.

So, good fishing to you as you pick your speculative investments for this Fall's run!

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Gold Junior Mining Report - Canaccord

Good Morning,

As summer begins, Gold is hitting new heights as uncertainty about Greece reins.  Do not worry, it is not only Greece that is affecting the Gold/Silver prices, but the buying powers of the new middle and upper classes in the emerging economies;  they will not let the precious metals prices fall, before buying in.

Canaccord is the latest of a few commentators that are remarking on the bargains in the junior miners sector.  This situation is while gold and silver prices are at new highs, the prices of the mining stocks are at lows unseen since before the run-up.  This is a buying opportunity, as by fall, these juniors will be hot again, being sought by the broader investment public.

Therefore pick carefully among the ruins of these Juniors.  Did you see the run-up of US Silver a few days ago.  Great Basin Gold is doing its run-up today.  

Thanks to reader AJF for the Canaccord report.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g

Link to the Canaccord report:

http://goombarh.fileave.com/CanaccordGoldGoldequitydisconnect.pdf

Gold, Metal, Commodities Exploration Juniors to Keep Eye Upon

Goombarh 63 - May 26, 2011

Good day,

Well, the time for the summer break has come, whether the Gold market takes a rest or not.  Gold appears headed for a further high before summer, but the Juniors are not following along.  Some top Gold and Silver names may tag along for a ride, but that is not my market.  I am out of the Goldcorp warrants now, as the time for expiration on June 9th draws nigh.  I will be cherry picking a few exploration juniors over the next 3 months, as I selectively re-deploy cash levels.

The Venture Index is heading back higher (after dropping to Oct 2010 levels), but I suspect that to be a head fake, as the commodities have all sold off.  The main TSX is back to Feb 2011 levels.  The Shanghai index has fallen back to Oct 2010 and Feb 2010 levels, so I suspect, there needs to be a major driver to restart the commodities metals push, and that will not happen until late summer.

The main S&P appears to chug along, and may continue to move higher, contrary to the pundits calling for a top.  Again, that is not my market.

I repeat from my last note, here is what I will be looking at:

·         select exploration juniors

·         good stocks at good prices (GBG & SLX)

·         best of the best gold stocks (RLGD, FNV, & GG), through warrants possibly

·         Agriculture ETFs - DAG, CORN, JO,

Here is a listing of stocks that I hold and will be keeping an eye upon, in no particular order:

Ethiopian Potash

Zaruma Resources

Primary Petroleum

Avnel Gold Mining

Southern Hemisphere

Belvedere Resources

Westernzagros Resources

Vast Resources

Tarsis Resources

Compliance Energy

Selwyn Resources

Argex Mining

US Silver

Canadian Zinc

Silvermex

Great Basin Gold

Franco Nevada

Victoria Gold

Excellon Resources

Crazy Horse Resources

Atac Resources

Adex Mining

In summary, my postings for the next while will be sparse.  May the sun shine on you and bring good fortune to you all in all your endeavours

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Gold Breaks out over Trend on high volume!

Goombarh Flash 26,  May 20th, 2011

Something's up folks...GLD ETF is recovering and is up above trend line on strong volume, see following chart:

Note the double bottoms, and the higher volume on push upwards.  Also GLD is now above my drawn white trend line. 

GLD is leading the GDX and HUI this morning, as the SPX is down.  Gold equities need a good general market to move higher.

For myself, I am holding  Goldcorp warrants that I hope to exit from next week. 

Also, May 25th next week is gold options expiry so expect volatility.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Triple Bottom for Gold Stocks

Goombarh 62 - May 17, 2011

Good day,

Will someone please tell me what is going on?

Gold is down yet the HUI index and the GDX index of large gold stocks are bottoming and showing strength in possibly moving up. 

THIS SURE AS HECK LOOKS LIKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM OR A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM.  -   THEREFORE LOOK FOR UPSIDE FOR GOOD GOLD STOCKS.

Can it be that all the bearishness is already priced into the markets?  Are the big funds accumulating Gold stocks now?  How can I make use of this information?  Is the bottom in for now?  Or is this the sell in May and go away until fall?

Disclosure:  I am holding only a select few juniors and Goldcorp warrants.

I can not make any good trading strategy, other than as previous:

·         select exploration juniors

·         good stocks at good prices (GBG & SLX)

·         best of the best gold stocks (RLGD, FNV, & GG)

·         Aggies - DAG

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Gold Bottom Now In!

by Marco G.

Goombarh 58 - May 5, 2011

Good Afternoon,

It has been a very trying two weeks for investors, as the previous gains are evaporating. 

The good news is that the Goombarh believes the bottom for Gold is now in:

From my readings anyways, there are two confirming analysis of this bottom.  The first is the 61.8% pullback from the GLD peak, which the Gold price has just declined to.  Will this go further down?  I don't think so due to the fundamental strength of the market; remember the Central Bank of Mexico just bought 100 tons of Gold.

The second confirmation comes from my Elliott wave analysis, since the last bottom in Jan 2011.  Wave 1 went up from 128 to 141 a rise of 13 units.  Wave 2 declined 6 units to 135.  Wave 3 went up  18 units to 153.  Wave 4 is the present decline which should be a 38% to 50% loss of Wave 3 which works out to 7 to 9 units from 153, which is the range of 144 to 146.  As GLD has just reached 144, I am of the opinion that the bottom is now in.

As for Silver, it has been badly beaten up with 4 separate margin increases in COMEX for futures trading in the last 2 weeks.

On the SLV chart above, Silver has declined to the 38.2% level with strong support here.  Also the volume sales is not increasing, so the bottom may also be in for Silver.  Note that Silver equities (such as SLW) and the SIL ETF have not declined as much as the Silver price.  Again an instance of the strong underlying strength of the Silver market.

Attached also, is a more detailed analysis of Shanghai Index correlation to Gold prices, which I am submitting to Seeking Alpha for posting.

I could be wrong in this analysis, but I am betting on being right, and I am buying more Goldcorp warrants.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles