Sample Notes and Flash for Readers on Email List

As we enter the year 2011, the markets are just as inscrutable as previously.  The possibility of a global economic recovery is promising, yet there are still many reasons to be wary.  Where should one dip their toe into the investment markets?

I am a firm believer in the rise of emerging markets and a firm recovery in North America.  I believe the safest and most reliable gains will be in the basic materials sector.  For myself, I am positioned in smaller miners and precious metals explorers and special mining situations.

For readers, interested in a sporadic notes email, just pop me your email address and I will put you on my distribution list for my market thoughts and occasional flashes.

Marco Goombarh

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Goombarh 20, Jan 4th, 2011

Good Morning,

Just sitting and examining the news, looking for a bit of inspiration here, while Gold/Silver is showing volatility and dropping about 2%.  Just wondering about the AGQ, double bull Silver ETF down 4%.

Floods in Queensland is affecting world coal production.  About 50% of the world's coking coal comes from there and may be affected for a few months, due to the widespread flooding covering an area the size of France and Germany.  See Bloomberg news here:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amQzBzMmHCtY&pos=8

Interestingly, the US coal miners have just been on a tear in the last week.  CLF, MEE, PCX, CLD.  Similar for the US listed China Coal miners, SCOK, LLEN, PUDA.

An interesting posting about mining at Seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/244392-2011-the-year-of-the-tsx-and-precious-metal-junior-miners

Noticed Alco is up 4% while rest of miners are sagging.  Support for the idea of Aluminum in a new upswing.

Copper has hit new highs and is driving copper miners.  Norsemont and Mercator Minerals are both up.

Rare earths are certainly in a frenzy, with AVL and REE up large, but I am afraid, that I have no insights or comments about those, except that I am not a participant and I don't plan to be. 

Almaden (AAU, TSX:AMM) is up with anticipation of the epithermal gold drilling results to be released in one large batch.  My previous thoughts on that:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/241250-exploration-techniques-hint-at-possible-gold-company-successes

As stated previously, I am expecting good news from Great Basin Gold (GBG) and am nibbling to increase my position prior to the results expected at the beginning of February.

Longer term, I am expecting to pull some monies out from Gold companies as they rise and re-deploy to the smaller base metals miners.  I see rises for aluminum, Zinc, Nickel and other metals that will be needed in recovery, but have not yet participated in gains.

Overall, I am doing nothing, but just sitting, watching and digesting the news, as I am keeping steady with the previous positioning and awaiting an inspiration for any new trading ideas.

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

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Goombarh Flash 11, Dec 24th, 2010

Good Morning,

Just had a chance to go over the Great Basin Gold (GBG) transcript of their conference call on November 16th.   Wow, they are talking of 5000 tons of Gold ore that averages 15 ounces per ton, on page 15:

"WE CURRENTLY -- IF YOU JUST TAKE THAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT ABOUT 4,500 OR 5,000 TONS, AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS THAT IN

THE HIGH-GRADE AREA WITH A VEIN PHYSICALLY IS, WE CAN MINE CURRENTLY OUT OF THAT 80 IS COMING UP WITH ABOUT 15

OUNCES PER TON --. 15 -- YES, ONE, FIVE."

Link to transcript:

http://greatbasingold.com/gup/filez/GBG-Q3-earnings-conference-call-transcript-16Nov2010.pdf

Link to quarter presentation:

http://greatbasingold.com/gup/filez/GBG-Q3-2010-presentation-16Nov2010.pdf

Also on page 4, Ferdi's talking about being cash flow positive in this quarter ending December 31st:

With the increased production from Hollister and first production ounces from Burnstone, we expect to be cash flow positive from operations in quarter four 2010.

What with the possibility of some of the super bonanza high grade Hollister ore hitting the books and also turning cash flow positive, GBG should have some great news in mid -February, 2011.

Smart people should begin to position themselves appropriately. 

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/