Happy Investing in 2012

Happy New Year and Investing in 2012!

As an example of what you may expect, if you get in on my email list, here it is, a recent commentary:

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Goombarh 73 - February 2, 2012

Good Morning,

It is time to get back to business folks, if you are interested in the stock market.

Since October, the general markets have recovered significantly.  The S&P500 is now at 1333, whereas the high was 1370 for last year, the highest since the 2008 crash.  That is if you were in the general markets, your portfolio should now be close to the highest since 2008, if you are an average investor.  Here is the headline from Bloomberg this morning:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/global-strategists-abandoning-bearish-views-after-missing-rally.html

This means there is a lot of big money, still on the sidelines that will come into the markets later and assist with driving things upwards.  Also, this is a presidential election year, and no, the president will not allow the economy to falter during his re-election push.

For myself, I invest in the riskier small cap resource stocks, and no I am not back to the highest since 2008.  The barometer for my portfolio may be the TSXV index which is at 1640 presently, a good distance of 33% off from the peak of 2464 achieved in February 2011, the highest since 2008.  In fact, I am a good 50% off from my own peak achieved in about March 2011.  What I hope to have learned from this latest episode of the markets gyrating downwards, is to take a portion of the winnings off the table, when the market is good.   This is a very important lesson to take to heart.  Preserve the cash, and redeploy later, when the markets are down.

Now back to business, the markets are moving upwards and the investor needs to be in and positioned to be able to reap the possible future gains.  Let me refresh myself as to my goals and market positioning guidelines.  Following are some guiding market thoughts collected over time.

Goombarh Strategy 2012

1.      Know something that will be valued higher in the future.

a.       shale oil - Bakken, Kurdistan oil (held back with politics)

b.      Folded porous carbonate structure allowing high producing level -Shoal Point Energy (SHP, SHPNF) - huge multi-billion barrel oil prospect; oil tests coming in 2012 and running right now.

2.      Track the trend of a commodity that is moving higher or may have a future shortage.

a.       oil, and metals; take a look at Zinc

b.      potash - Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) - shallow open pit capable deposit; 43-101 coming.

3.      Consider that the general markets are in uptrend before investing.

a.       S&P now moving upwards.

4.      Leverage carefully.

a.       Warrants, and such

b.      Petroamerica Warrants (PTAWF)

5.      Lower priced stocks move higher with easier gains.

a.       TSXV stocks, explorers and developers with solid management and properties

b.      Developers becoming producers - Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) - producer growing larger, Great Basin Gold (GBG) - solid management and will come on stream with two producing gold mines, Westernzagros (WZR, WZGRF) - Sarquala producing 5000 barrels per day, Mil Qasm test and Kudimir 2 are coming in 2012.

6.      Consider marginal players, with bad news factored in and a change in outlook.

a.       Marginal stocks have the highest gains in a turnaround. - Petroamerica, (PTA, PTAXF) - turning into producer.

7.      Consider that market judges on growth prospects rather than absolute value

a.       market is not rational and will move on hype; so consider when to get out!  Already have getting out in mind, when you are getting in.

As to what is exciting recently, take a look at Shoal Point Energy.  Here is the chart from yesterday:

SHP has broken out and is now at .40 cents.  Here is a link to their latest corporate presentation:

http://shoalpointenergy.com/pdfs/SHPAGM%20Presentation%20Jan%2026,%202012.pdf

I am sitting on my hands (not selling), and if it is not too optimistic, this stock may be a possible home run.

Petroamerica (PTA, PTAXF) may be readying themselves for a big run. 

Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) has crashed lower, possibly on the decline in sentiment about potash pricing and sentiment about Ethiopia as being safe place to invest in, but they are presently drilling and should have a 43-101 within 6 months.

Westernzagros (WZR, WZRFF) is being accumulated by persons unknown and are awaiting news from Mil Qasm and Kudamir 2 (being drilled by Talsiman Energy).  This is a good longer term stock in my opinion.

Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) will move with Silver prices higher.  They have strong management and will be able to deliver on their promises of increased production, but it will take more capital and time.

Oh, attached is my latest take on Great Basin Gold (GBG, which I have posted on Seeking Alpha.  This would be my safest longer term play.  Great management and gold production coming on-line. 

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

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Shoal Point Energy Breaks Out !

Hello Reader,

I am using this tidbit to entice more of you to sign up for my email list.  It is easy, there are no costs or obligations and only requires an email to me (Goombarh at gmail.com) with your email address.  I will not reveal the list to anybody else, and my only purpose is to perhaps share some insights.  My aim is entirely selfish for myself, in the hopes that in the future, I may be able to have a small impact on moving stocks with a good pick (well, enough dreaming).  Usually, anything I write about, I already have a small position in, and I am hoping that my writings, together with my research and analysis will lead to good outcomes for everyone involved (meaning me and you).  Also, I would be interested in your comments and your insights, by email, and I do usually respond to your emails, in due course.

Now for my sales pictch, I did do good in my last Goombarh Flash to those on my email list.  Shoal Point has reached .35 cents today.  I issued a Goombarh Flash 35 on Jan 24th when the stock was at .23 cents, an appreciation of about 50%.  This is not a really big deal, as smaller stocks like this do have volatility in moves up and down, but FWIW, this might be a beginning of a much higher movement upwards.

I do not believe the time to sell has come yet, and I see further and stronger price appreciation ahead.  I believe the company is sitting on an oil gusher and the market moves are supporting this idea with higher prices for the stock.

Here is the link to the news release today, announcing coming oil testing:

http://cnsx.ca/Storage/1422/129938_January_30,_2012.pdf

January 30, 2012 For Immediate Distribution

CNSX: SHP

Shoal Point Energy and Operator DLMC Receive Regulatory Approval to

Drill ahead at Shoal Point 3K39

Toronto, ON: Shoal Point Energy Ltd. (the “Company” or “Shoal Point”) (SHP on CNSX)

announces that Dragon Lance Management Corp. (DLMC), the Operator of the Shoal Point

3K39 well, has received approval to drill ahead in a new borehole (side track 3K39Z) within the

Green Point Formation. The current well, 3K39, has been drilled to 1745 metres and cased to

1711 metres. The new side track borehole, named 3K39Z, will be drilled by setting a whipstock

at approximately 1585 metres and drilling out of casing and drilling ahead to the base of the

Green Point Formation.

As announced previously, the current work will involve a comprehensive testing program, which

will include one open hole test in the new 3K39Z borehole, and then, up to four tests out of the

casing in the existing 3K39 borehole, subject to final regulatory approvals of the testing program.

All tests will occur within the Green Point Formation, and will test the flow potential and

reservoir characteristics of unstimulated, fractured Green Point shales. The entire program is

expected to take up to 60 days to complete.

Shoal Point Energy holds a 100% working interest in the Shoal Point 3K39 cased wellbore as

well as 100% of the 3K-39Z sidetracked wellbore.

Here is the link to the stock chart of Shoal Point Energy:
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/cnsx.show_chart?pl_primary_listing=SHP-CN&iaction=Generate&pl_period=12D



Good luck and good stock returns for everyone,

Marco Goombarh

Shoal Point Energy - Oil Test, Newfoundland

Shoal Point Energy Ltd. Announces Commencement of Drilling Operations and Closing of Additional Financing.

Shoal Point Energy Ltd SHP

1/5/2012 7:00:00 AM

Shoal Point Energy Ltd. Announces Commencement of Drilling Operations and Closing of Additional Financing.

(via Thenewswire.ca)

Toronto, ON: Shoal Point Energy Ltd. (the "Company" or "Shoal Point") (SHP on CNSX) announces that it has commenced drilling operations and has closed additional financing.

Operational Update

Shoal Point is pleased to announce that drilling operations have commenced at the Shoal Point 3K39z well, at Shoal Point, Port au Port Bay, Newfoundland. The borehole has been drilled to a measured depth of 1745 metres, and is cased to a measured depth of 1711 metres. Liquid hydrocarbon shows were recorded over the entire gross section of the well below about 700 metres, primarily in the form of gas chromatography/mud gas indicators, blue-white fluorescence in rock cuttings cut in solvent, oil-stained core, and petrophysics.

The current program is scheduled to set a whipstock, sidetrack, and deepen the current borehole to near the base of the Ordovician Green Point Formation, the primary target of the current exploration program. The evaluation program will involve the flow testing of up to five zones, including (1) a lower open-hole test in new hole, (2) a cased-hole extended formation leak-off (injection) test, and (3) up to three cased-hole perforation flow tests.

The lower open-hole test is designed to assess the natural flow properties and hydrocarbon saturation of newly-drilled (un-invaded) formation near the base of the well. The leak-off test is designed to assess the matrix rock properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the formation, as identified by NuTech, our petrophysical consultants, so that programs for stimulation of the Green Point Formation may be designed in the future. The cased-hole perforation flow tests are designed to assess the hydrocarbon saturation and the unstimulated natural flow potential of the formation which arises from a high concentration of bedding-parallel natural fractures, as interpreted by NuTech and the Company's geological team from logs, core and gas chromatography data. One of these fractured zones indicated potential permeability on a short open-hole Closed Chamber Test carried out during the initial drilling of the well, as reported by the company on June 24, 2011.

http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8394485

Photos @:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=11925&mn=28250&pt=msg&mid=11266363

Stock prices @:
http://cnsx.ca/Page.asp?PageID=2013&AA_RecordID=344

chart @:
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/cnsx.show_chart?pl_primary_listing=SHP-CN&iaction=Generate&pl_period=12D

more info on this guy @:
http://www.investorideas.com/Research/PDFs/2011/SHP_110211.pdf

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The Goombarh holds this one, tucked away and almost forgot about it.

Nice movement upwards now...bright prospects for 2012

New Shale Prospect - Shoal Point Energy - SHP on CNQ Exchange

Goombarh Flash 29,  August 17, 2011

New Shale Prospect - Shoal Point Energy - SHP on CNQ Exchange

Good Day,

Found another compelling prospect.  Shoal Point seems to be drilling and testing on old oil property with very thick shale and siltstone layers, over 100's of meters thick, due to folding from geologic action.  The shales also appear to have large and minute fractures. 

The Goombarh interprets from his reasearch, that Shoal have found oil for sure.  The only variable is whether they can economically recover it.  The basin that they are in is large, in the billions of barrels contained, and they have lots of ground in area.  Now with the shales being so thick and interspersed with siltstone, and being possibly fractured already, this is a very compelling situation.  The oil may flow freely. They already seem to say that the oil flow is in the range of 100's of barrels per day without further fracking.

Link to their corporate presentation:

http://shoalpointenergy.com/pdfs/SEPAC%20presentation%20May%2031%202011.pdf

Link to their well testing news:

http://www.cnq.ca/Storage/1379/125665_Shoal_Point_-_press_release_-_July_26_2011-3.pdf

This is not an easy stock to buy, as the CNQ is unquoted and very illiquid.  I am in process of accumulating a position.  Share price is around .20 Cdn.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

PS:

International Frontier Resources has moved up 50%  from last Flash and holding tough.

Primary Petroleum is moving today up 25%

Anglo Canadian Oil moved up on news a few days ago.

Donnybrook Energy is moving slowly on low volume.

In Summary, there is a starting recognition of Shale oil plays in North America.  This is early days for some of these plays.  Check Seeking Alpha and search on Shale oil and read the many authors writing about shale oil.  Good Luck to you all.