Bottom for Summer 2011 is In!

Goombarh 70 - August 21, 2011

Good Sunday,

Further to my last note of #69, I've thought to add some words to the encouragement of getting readers back into the market.  Yes, fear is all around, as depicted by the news media and specifically by some of the analytical postings on Seeking Alpha such as the following:

·         http://seekingalpha.com/article/288706-helicopter-ben-and-the-summer-crash-of-2011

·         http://seekingalpha.com/article/288557-the-ultimate-jackson-hole-surprise-gdp-targeting

·         http://seekingalpha.com/article/288692-recession-is-not-in-view-but-economy-is-ugly

These writers are knowledgeable and well meaning, but the Goombarh thinks they are over analyzing, and they do not give a course of action.

Speaking of action, there are yearly doldrums as depicted across the indices following in the comparison chart, the Venture is the key index that I follow, where the juniors that I invest in are traded, but the S&P 500, the Wiltshire and the TSX are shown as well.  Note the green highlighted box showing the summer lows and the swift fall gains.  I believe, that this year 2011, the same picture will play out, as I believe the summer bottom is in with the prevalent pessimism out there.

A truism for the best gains is the lowest entry price possible for your stock position.  Therefore, the action for investors should be careful placement of your investment positions in stocks that have made their lows for this summer.  The gains are coming in September to December. 

As I have completely revamped my own portfolio and am now positioned for the possible fall rising, I thought it would be remiss of me to not mention that to you people, so therefore, now I have mentioned it.  Good luck.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

2011 Summer Bottom for Mining and Minerals is In!

Goombarh 64 - July 7, 2011

Good day,

I hope this note finds you well and enjoying your Summer.  A couple of good articles and the possible market bottom leads me to come out with this note.

Firstly, the Shanghai Composite appears to be leading the SP 500 to new highs:

The SSEC has bottomed on strong resistance level, and the Chinese tightening to reduce growth to 7~8% has now all been priced in.  The latest bank rate increase is also behind us, so the demand for commodities should continue.  As to precious metals, I hold the view, that we are continuing higher into the fall.  There is a strong analysis, that I am in agreement with, of the Chinese impact on the world economy going forward by Julian Philips:  The link is here:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/jul042011.html

The SP 500 is moving to new highs?

With the regular markets in a strong positive mood, this makes the riskier small miners, that I am interested in, all the more stronger.  There is a Ken Fisher, outlook, that makes a good general primer on what to expect for the second half of this year.  It is attached as a PDF document.

The TSX Venture ETF as a proxy for the Venture exchange has turned around:

The rebound in the Venture exchange has brought my portfolio back a bit from the declines, and now is possibly the beginning of a fall rush.  It does seem a bit early, compared to previous years, but Gold is strong, the SP 500 is strong and the Venture is rebounding.  Anyways, how can anyone predict the future?  The main point is that this is the time to be adding some speculative investments with the idea of good PR's coming and the Fall run for metals and commodities; it is just time to prepare for that.

The Agricultural ETFs, DAG, that I was monitoring have taken a fall, and now may be a good time to nibble.

I am playing around with the idea of using DAG as a cash holder.  The possible gains from DAG are good, but are not high enough for me compared to speculative miners.

So, good fishing to you as you pick your speculative investments for this Fall's run!

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles