Showing posts with label Precious metals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Precious metals. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Goombarh Says Markets recover starting next week

Goombarh 57 - May 3, 2011
Good Afternoon,

Looking for what's forward, I came across this battle of the narrowing triangle in Shanghai.  I believe how Shanghai behaves will indicate what is in store for us in the Western world for the next little while.  China is the consumer of the metals, commodities and sets the tone for the markets overall:

Note the bounces in July, 2010 and in February 2011.  Will the trace bounce off the bottom edge and then break out to the top? 

For the answer to that, I looked at a smaller time frame for this trace as in following:
From the closer look, one can clearly see that last bottoms in July 2010 and Feb 2011.  A bottom appears to be forming up presently.  Whether the move upwards is strong enough to break out, only time will tell.  Presently, China's markets are closed for the May 1st holidays and will open next week.

If I was a betting man, I would bet on a strong market push upwards starting next week.  This may be true for the precious metals also.  Therefore, have patience, the sell in May is not here yet, and the peak for precious metals is still ahead, in my humble opinion. 

I would still try to take some monies off the table in the next push upwards, and redeploy the cash later this summer for bargain opportunities.

I note that GBG released a operational report this morning:
Burnstone is ramping up, but only with low grade development ore, so therefore, nothing significant for earnings, only about 5000 oz, this past quarter.  The outlook is for about 16,000 ounces for the next quarter.  Therefore the gains for GBG will be later this summer.  However, I do not think the pricing of GBG stock will ever get lower than it is now.

Until next time,
Marco G.
http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

Monday, November 1, 2010

Six Silver Stocks Status - with CFTC Revelations

Six Silver Stocks Status - with CFTC Revelations.
October 31, 2010
The author is an avid Silver investor, and is watching the Silver price this weekend with an eagle eye.   It is interesting  in that this next November week starts with "All Hallows Day" and "All Souls Day" upcoming.  Is it now time for the "good guys" to win for a change?

CFTC Silver Revelations

Last week we had Silver shocking news from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that Silver futures pricing may have been manipulated:
“I do believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets,” Mr Chilton said on Tuesday at a meeting in Washington. “There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and what I consider deviously control that price.”
With this news and revelations being priced into the markets, Silver appears poised for a new movement upwards.  The author reviews the silver price and the status of his Six Silver Stocks recommendation made on September 17th, 2010.

Silver Price Movement Recently


The Kitco chart following displays the last Silver price at the end of the day Friday October 29th as $24.75 USD.
Figure 1:  Silver Daily closes at $24.75 Oct. 29th, 2010.

Examining the Silver movement using the SLV Silver ETF as a proxy for the Silver price for the last month in the chart following we see the distinct formation of a bowl or cup shape, circled in blue.
Figure 2:  Silver Chart with Bowl formation.  Silver appears poised for break upwards.
In technical trading circles, the bowl or cup shape is seen as bullish, as a continuation of an up trend indicator.  Looking further back to summer, in the following chart of the SLV, we see that the Silver price started the up trend on or about August 22nd, 2010. 

Figure 3:  Silver moves since August 23rd, 2010.  All indicators shown are bullish.  The RSI is turning upwards.  The price bowl looks poised for a break upwards.  The volume is increasing, supporting the price moves.  The MACD and STO are curling upwards.
Since that date, the price action has been straight upwards until mid October.  On about October 15th, the upwards movement stopped and the prices traced out the afore mentioned bowl shape. 
With the CFTC news last week, it now looks as if the Silver price may have finished tracing the bowl and may be ready to resume its upwards movement in November.

Six Silver Stocks Status

Following are the charts of the stock prices since August 23rd, 2010, for my six Silver stocks recommendation and comments.  Each chart is compared to the price action of the SLV ETF, the silver white tracing.

Silver Wheaton - SLW


Figure 4:  Silver Wheaton - SLW is tracking Silver's price.
Silver Wheaton just seems to be moving along the track in line with the price of Silver.  SLW did give a bullish pop of 5% this past Friday.  SLW reported record earnings of $53 million USD, in August, 2010, up 200%.  It will be interesting to see what this November's quarterly report will bring, with the peaking Silver prices.

Hecla Mining - HL


Figure 5:  Hecla Mining -  HL is tracking Silver's price.
Hecla's share price jumped over Silver in early September, 2010 and has stayed up since.  HL reported their 3rd quarter last week with an increase of 30% in cash flow versus 2009.

Silver Standard Resources - SSRI


Figure 6:  Silver Standard Resources - SSRI is tracking Silver's price.
Silver Standard Resources' share price jumped over Silver in mid-October and has stayed buoyant since then.  On Friday last, SSRI announced the sale of their huge Snowfield and Bruce Jack properties.  SSRI will still control about 50% of the value of these properties in the new company, Pretium Resources, formed by their former CEO Robert Quartermain.  Perhaps this is a mechanism, that will be able to unlock the precious metals values in the two large properties.

US Silver Corporation - USSIF


Figure 7:  US Silver Corp USSIF is leveraging Silver's price.
US Silver Corporation displays the characteristics of a junior miner's ability to leverage the price of Silver.  USSIF has stayed consistently above the Silver price line and the gap higher is increasing.  USSIF has just completed a $7 million dollar financing to refurbish a shaft in their Coeur mine, in order to increase production.  USSIF reported their 3rd quarter in mid-October, and production missed target due to a contractor fatality in June, 2010.

Genco Resouces - GGCRF


Figure 8:  Genco Resources - GGCRF is leveraging Silver's price.
Genco Resources is an undervalued Silver producer in Mexico, that was just offered a merger by Silvermex Resources.  On Friday last, ISS Proxy Services recommended the merger going forward, causing the movement in the share prices.

Canadian Zinc - CZICF


Figure 9:  Canadian Zinc - CZICF is leveraging Silver's price.
Canadian Zinc made a large movement upwards in mid-September with their deep resource extension drilling.  CZICF is the owner of the old Hunt Brothers' Silver, Zinc and Lead Prairie Creek mine in northern Canada.  CZICF is drilling to prove up further resources and is awaiting approval of their water permit, expected in 2011.  CZICF just reported last week on their Environmental Assessment and drilling being finished for the season.

Silver Summary

Silver appears poised to resume moving upwards this fall.  The fundamental reasons for Silver to become more valuable was just given a boost by the CFTC revelations.  Major Silver miners such as SLW, HL, and SSRI are moving in time with Silver in addition to their own value creation.  Smaller Junior Silver stocks such as USSIF, GGCRF and CZICF are leveraging the price of Silver with their movements upwards.  The Silver status is definitely satisfactory.

Disclosure: The author is long Silver mining equities.
Important Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained within this document reflect the personal views of the author and should be viewed as food for thought and amusement only. The author may from time to time have a position in any of the securities mentioned. There are no guarantees of the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Independent due diligence and discussions with one’s own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. These writings are not to be construed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. We do not request or receive compensation in any form in order to feature companies in this publication. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this document to any type of third party without the express permission of the author. This document may be quoted, in context, provided proper credit is given.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Six Silver Stocks

Six Silver Stocks

By: Marco G.

September 17, 2010

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

If you have viewed any of my previous writings, you will know that I am a fan of Silver mining stocks. Firstly, I specialize in mining stocks, and secondly is that in searching for the best gains, I believe we have an edge for the Silver metal in the upcoming fall as detailed here in the Silver break of the Gold Silver Ratio.

So, let us take a look at some shining Silver possibilities for your portfolio.

Silver Wheaton – SLW

Silver Wheaton, the large-cap $8.5 billion royalty silver equity, is in the author’s opinion, is “la crème de la crème” of Silver stocks. Their unique business model of purchasing Silver production streams allows them to shed the production risks and still participate in the exposure to the rise of the underlying Silver metal price. Looking at the above chart, you can see that Silver Wheaton has done well this year with an 80% move, and has roughly tripled in price since the lows of March 2009. Silver Wheaton is the large safe vehicle to participate in the Silver price rise. The author has owned SLW in the past, and uses the status of SLW as an indicator in monitoring the Silver sector.

Hecla Mining – HL

Hecla Mining is a mid-cap $1.5 billion Silver producer based in the Silver Valley area of Idaho. Hecla is stabilizing their Greens Creek mine production in Alaska which features negative cash costs due to the Zinc Lead by-products credit. Since tripling in price from the lows of March 2009, Hecla has struggled for the most of this year. However along with the other silver miners, Hecla has made a strong move forward with the rise of the Silver metal’s price. Hecla is a volatile equity that may have significant upside, should they iron out the kinks. The author has owned HL in the past.

Silver Standard Resources – SSRI (TSX:SSO)

Silver Standard Resources, SSRI, is an emerging $1.6 billion mid-cap Silver producer based in the Americas. SSRI has just started production at their Pirquitas mine in Argentina at the beginning of this year. What is notable about SSRI, is they own twin gold silver projects of Snowfield and Brucejack, that are huge projects in northern British Columbia, which are at the preliminary assessment stage. The author is considering an investment in SSRI for the possible large upsides in development.

US Silver Corp – USSIF (TSX:USA)


US Silver Corporation, is a small-cap $76 million Silver Valley, Idaho based miner. Their Silver property was acquired from Coeur D’Alene (CDE), and their reopening of the mines success is detailed in a previous article here. USA has roughly doubled in price this year. USA has just completed a small $6 million private placement to re-open the Coeur mine shaft which is linked to their mining complex and increase production. As the author is keen on small Silver mining stocks, the author owns shares of USA.

Genco Resources – GGCRF (TSX:GGC)

Genco Resources is a small-cap, $37 million, turnaround story of a Silver producer based in Mexico. Their La Guitarra mine has been restarted under changed management. Genco owns the whole Temascaltepec mining district, which has a long history of Silver production in Mexico. Genco has a Ni 43-101 compliant report indicating 50 million ounces of reserves and 150 million ounces of resources in Silver equivalents. As Genco was a $4 stock, when producing in previous years, this makes this almost a no-brainer investment for this author.

Canadian Zinc – CZICF (TSX:CZN)

Canadian Zinc is a small-cap, $61 million, story of the old Texas Hunt brothers Prairie Creek mine built in the 1980’s when Silver was last at $50 per ounce. The mine is in northern Canada and is unique for the extreme high values of its ore, $800USD per ton, and the complete mining infrastructure that was built in place, not used and then abandoned. See this September 15th, 2010, interview with Alan Taylor, their Chief Operating Officer and VP of Exploration.

Canadian Zinc is misnamed and misunderstood and much undervalued. The Prairie Creek mine was fully permitted and 3 months from production when Silver prices collapsed and they shut down. Defined resources have increased from 2 million tons in the Hunt brothers’ days to over 11 million tons presently, and there is potential of multiples of that in their present exploration. There is a deep drill program going presently that should report on mineralization 4 kilometers north of their mine site. Canadian Zinc is in the process of permitting for mining production. The potential for Canadian Zinc is large and the author owns shares in this company.



Six Silver Stocks Performance in 2010

The following chart compares the relative performance this year of the above six mentioned stocks.

To paraphrase the old adage, “Past performance does not indicate possible future returns”. Silver Wheaton, US Silver and Canadian Zinc are leading with their gains. Hecla, Silver Standard and Genco are still dealing with their issues. However, they all have moved off their lows of the Summer and are moving up with the Silver price increase.

Summary

The Silver metal price appears to be moving to new highs this fall. The author is a firm believer in junior mining equities for leveraging the gains of the underlying precious metals. The author also believes that the safer investments would include miners that are either mining or close to production. The reader is advised to assess their own appetite for risk and reward in their own investments.

Disclosure: The author is long Silver mining equities.

Important Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained within this document reflect the personal views of the author and should be viewed as food for thought and amusement only. The author may from time to time have a position in any of the securities mentioned. There are no guarantees of the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Independent due diligence and discussions with one’s own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. These writings are not to be construed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. We do not request or receive compensation in any form in order to feature companies in this publication. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this document to any type of third party without the express permission of the author. This document may be quoted, in context, provided proper credit is given.





Disclosure: Long mining equities

Tags: SLW, SSRI, HL, GGC, GGCRF, USA, USSIF, CZN, CZICF, Silver, Gold, SLV, GLD, GDXJ, GDX, GSR