Goombarh's Edge - Findings, Insights & Research for Mining, Oil and Commodity Equities

Happy Investing in 2012

2012-02-02T07:20:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year and Valentines and Investing in 2012!

As an example of what you may expect, if you get in on my email list, here it is, a recent commentary:

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Goombarh 73 - February 2, 2012

Good Morning,

It is time to get back to business folks, if you are interested in the stock market.

Since October, the general markets have recovered significantly. The S&P500 is now at 1333, whereas the high was 1370 for last year, the highest since the 2008 crash. That is if you were in the general markets, your portfolio should now be close to the highest since 2008, if you are an average investor. Here is the headline from Bloomberg this morning:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/global-strategists-abandoning-bearish-views-after-missing-rally.html

This means there is a lot of big money, still on the sidelines that will come into the markets later and assist with driving things upwards. Also, this is a presidential election year, and no, the president will not allow the economy to falter during his re-election push.

For myself, I invest in the riskier small cap resource stocks, and no I am not back to the highest since 2008. The barometer for my portfolio may be the TSXV index which is at 1640 presently, a good distance of 33% off from the peak of 2464 achieved in February 2011, the highest since 2008. In fact, I am a good 50% off from my own peak achieved in about March 2011. What I hope to have learned from this latest episode of the markets gyrating downwards, is to take a portion of the winnings off the table, when the market is good. This is a very important lesson to take to heart. Preserve the cash, and redeploy later, when the markets are down.

Now back to business, the markets are moving upwards and the investor needs to be in and positioned to be able to reap the possible future gains. Let me refresh myself as to my goals and market positioning guidelines. Following are some guiding market thoughts collected over time.

Goombarh Strategy 2012

1. Know something that will be valued higher in the future.

a. shale oil - Bakken, Kurdistan oil (held back with politics)

b. Folded porous carbonate structure allowing high producing level -Shoal Point Energy (SHP, SHPNF) - huge multi-billion barrel oil prospect; oil tests coming in 2012 and running right now.

2. Track the trend of a commodity that is moving higher or may have a future shortage.

a. oil, and metals; take a look at Zinc

b. potash - Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) - shallow open pit capable deposit; 43-101 coming.

3. Consider that the general markets are in uptrend before investing.

a. S&P now moving upwards.

4. Leverage carefully.

a. Warrants, and such

b. Petroamerica Warrants (PTAWF)

5. Lower priced stocks move higher with easier gains.

a. TSXV stocks, explorers and developers with solid management and properties

b. Developers becoming producers - Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) - producer growing larger, Great Basin Gold (GBG) - solid management and will come on stream with two producing gold mines, Westernzagros (WZR, WZGRF) - Sarquala producing 5000 barrels per day, Mil Qasm test and Kudimir 2 are coming in 2012.

6. Consider marginal players, with bad news factored in and a change in outlook.

a. Marginal stocks have the highest gains in a turnaround. - Petroamerica, (PTA, PTAXF) - turning into producer.

7. Consider that market judges on growth prospects rather than absolute value

a. market is not rational and will move on hype; so consider when to get out! Already have getting out in mind, when you are getting in.

As to what is exciting recently, take a look at Shoal Point Energy. Here is the chart from yesterday:

SHP has broken out and is now at .40 cents. Here is a link to their latest corporate presentation:

http://shoalpointenergy.com/pdfs/SHPAGM%20Presentation%20Jan%2026,%202012.pdf

I am sitting on my hands (not selling), and if it is not too optimistic, this stock may be a possible home run.

Petroamerica (PTA, PTAXF) may be readying themselves for a big run.

Ethiopian Potash (FED, ETPHF) has crashed lower, possibly on the decline in sentiment about potash pricing and sentiment about Ethiopia as being safe place to invest in, but they are presently drilling and should have a 43-101 within 6 months.

Westernzagros (WZR, WZRFF) is being accumulated by persons unknown and are awaiting news from Mil Qasm and Kudamir 2 (being drilled by Talsiman Energy). This is a good longer term stock in my opinion.

Silvermex (SLX, GGCRF) will move with Silver prices higher. They have strong management and will be able to deliver on their promises of increased production, but it will take more capital and time.

Oh, attached is my latest take on Great Basin Gold (GBG, which I have posted on Seeking Alpha. This would be my safest longer term play. Great management and gold production coming on-line.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

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To be on my email list, send your email address to goombarh at gmail.com. It is that simple, and I will not disclose your address to anyone.

Shoal Point Energy Breaks Out !

2012-01-31T14:16:00.000-08:00

Hello Reader,

I am using this tidbit to entice more of you to sign up for my email list. It is easy, there are no costs or obligations and only requires an email to me (Goombarh at gmail.com) with your email address. I will not reveal the list to anybody else, and my only purpose is to perhaps share some insights. My aim is entirely selfish for myself, in the hopes that in the future, I may be able to have a small impact on moving stocks with a good pick (well, enough dreaming). Usually, anything I write about, I already have a small position in, and I am hoping that my writings, together with my research and analysis will lead to good outcomes for everyone involved (meaning me and you). Also, I would be interested in your comments and your insights, by email, and I do usually respond to your emails, in due course.

Now for my sales pictch, I did do good in my last Goombarh Flash to those on my email list. Shoal Point has reached .35 cents today. I issued a Goombarh Flash 35 on Jan 24th when the stock was at .23 cents, an appreciation of about 50%. This is not a really big deal, as smaller stocks like this do have volatility in moves up and down, but FWIW, this might be a beginning of a much higher movement upwards.

I do not believe the time to sell has come yet, and I see further and stronger price appreciation ahead. I believe the company is sitting on an oil gusher and the market moves are supporting this idea with higher prices for the stock.

Here is the link to the news release today, announcing coming oil testing:

http://cnsx.ca/Storage/1422/129938_January_30,_2012.pdf
January 30, 2012 For Immediate Distribution
CNSX: SHP
Shoal Point Energy and Operator DLMC Receive Regulatory Approval to
Drill ahead at Shoal Point 3K39
Toronto, ON: Shoal Point Energy Ltd. (the “Company” or “Shoal Point”) (SHP on CNSX)
announces that Dragon Lance Management Corp. (DLMC), the Operator of the Shoal Point
3K39 well, has received approval to drill ahead in a new borehole (side track 3K39Z) within the
Green Point Formation. The current well, 3K39, has been drilled to 1745 metres and cased to
1711 metres. The new side track borehole, named 3K39Z, will be drilled by setting a whipstock
at approximately 1585 metres and drilling out of casing and drilling ahead to the base of the
Green Point Formation.
As announced previously, the current work will involve a comprehensive testing program, which
will include one open hole test in the new 3K39Z borehole, and then, up to four tests out of the
casing in the existing 3K39 borehole, subject to final regulatory approvals of the testing program.
All tests will occur within the Green Point Formation, and will test the flow potential and
reservoir characteristics of unstimulated, fractured Green Point shales. The entire program is
expected to take up to 60 days to complete.
Shoal Point Energy holds a 100% working interest in the Shoal Point 3K39 cased wellbore as
well as 100% of the 3K-39Z sidetracked wellbore.

Here is the link to the stock chart of Shoal Point Energy:
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/cnsx.show_chart?pl_primary_listing=SHP-CN&iaction=Generate&pl_period=12D

Good luck and good stock returns for everyone,

Marco Goombarh

Obama throws a Wrench into the Bakken

2012-01-19T07:18:00.000-08:00

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http://news.yahoo.com/obama-set-reject-keystone-oil-pipeline-sources-165859308.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration on Wednesday rejected the Keystone crude oil pipeline project, a decision welcomed by environmental groups but blasted by the domestic energy industry.

U.S. President Barack Obama said TransCanada's application for the 1,700-mile (2,740-km) pipeline was denied because the State Department did not have enough time to complete the review process.

"This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline, but the arbitrary nature of a deadline that prevented the State Department from gathering the information necessary to approve the project and protect the American people," Obama said in a statement.

With environmental groups concerned about carbon emissions from oil sands production, the administration in November delayed a decision on a presidential permit for the project until 2013.

But lawmakers that support the project attached a measure to a tax-cut law passed at the end of last year that set a February deadline for a decision.

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Well, talk about future unknowns for investing, politics does certainly does move in unpredictable ways.

Canada as a stable supplier of energy requirements, and USA decides to shoot itself in the foot?

Longer term, the Goombarh thinks this will be sorted out, but presently, this just puts the fire out in the Bakken.

M. Goombarh

Genel Buys Longford; Gulf Keystone Invites Bidders

2012-01-16T08:27:00.000-08:00

Futher Kurdistan action and news in oil sector:

In the Genel Longford deal, the market is valuing Longford shares at about .20 to .25 cents Canadian, as Longford has finalized deal.

Gulf Keystone is offering itself up for bids by selling Kurdish interests for $350-$500 million USD.

I hold Vast Explorations(TSX:VST, OTC:VSTFF) and Westernzagros (TSX:WZR, OTC:WZGRF). Talsiman has indicated an interest in selling their Kurdistan holdings as well, I believe. Talisman is partnered with Westernzagros. Genel has indicated that Niko's holdings are too expensive; Niko is partnered with Vast.

Looking for my holdings to move.

The Goombarh estimates that Vast is worth just as much as Longford if not more. Westernzagros is worth more as it is presently producing, and on the verge of annoucing further drilling news .

Marco Goombarh
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http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8400649

Longford Energy Inc. Announces Kurdistan Asset Transfer to Genel Energy plc

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 16, 2012) - Longford Energy Inc. (TSX VENTURE:LFD) ("Longford" or "the Company") is pleased to announce that it has entered into a definitive sale and purchase agreement to divest its 40 per cent undivided interest in the Chia Surkh Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq (the "Transaction") to Genel Energy plc ("Genel") which is already a 20% interest holder in the Chia Surkh Block. As part of the Transaction the Company will receive consideration of USD $68 million, of which USD $42 million cash will be paid to Longford and $26 million will be paid directly to the Kurdistan Regional Government (the "KRG") as settlement for outstanding capacity building bonus payments, and related interest, due under the Chia Surkh Block Production Sharing Contract (the "PSC").

The Company acquired a 40% interest in the PSC in 2009. The three year first exploration term of the PSC was set to expire on June 11, 2012. Under the minimum work program obligations, Longford has an outstanding commitment for the drilling of two exploration wells, and a commitment to a minimum expenditure of USD $20 million over the next 5 months, which cannot be realistically fulfilled (financially as well as operationally) in a timely manner. This expected non-performance, and the risk of contract expiration and cancellation, was a key consideration in the Transaction.

As a part of government approval for the Transaction, Longford has entered into an assignment and novation agreement with the KRG, Genel and Petoil Petroleum and Petroleum Products International Exploration and Production Inc. amending the terms of the PSC. Pursuant to this amendment, if Longford is unable to secure the requisite shareholder approval for the Transaction by March 1, 2012, Longford has agreed to assign its interest in the Chia Surkh Block back to the KRG without compensation. As consideration for this amendment, the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region has indicated to Longford that it will support the Transaction when submitted for final approval to the Regional Oil & Gas Council.

Mr. Ahmed Said, President & CEO, commented, "At the time of the acquisition of its interest in 2009, the Company expected to spend in excess of USD $100 million over three years on the exploration of the Chia Surkh Block, however due to challenging market conditions Longford was not able to fully capitalize this project to meet the commitments. Given the above circumstances, I believe the Transaction represents a superior alternative for our shareholders".

As a part of the proceeds, the Company intends to issue a one-time dividend of CDN $0.10, per share, to shareholders of record after the closing of the Transaction. The remainder of funds is expected to be utilized for other international corporate development and acquisition opportunities. The Company has started a preliminary process of identifying potential assets for acquisition, including potential opportunities in Central and West Africa. The Board of Directors strongly believes that given the current prevailing market dynamics in the junior oil & gas sector, there are exceptional opportunities, in relatively stable jurisdictions, to pursue with the potential of creating significant value for its shareholders. As a part of its restructuring, the Company expects to recruit key management personnel to assist in executing its new strategy.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/idUSL6E8CG0BZ20120116

Gulf Keystone sees up to $500 mln from oil stake

John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer told a Morgan Stanley investor conference that a data room on the Akri Bijeel block is to be opened next week, and that he expected 10-12 interested parties to participate.

"Gulf Keystone estimates a sale would be finalized by April, with its interest sold for $350-$500m," analysts at the investment bank said.

Gulf Keystone, which says it has found billions of barrels of oil at its Shaikan discovery, said in September it was seeking a buyer for its 20 percent interest in the Akri-Bijeel block to help finance development of other assets.

Hungary's MOL operates the Akri Bijeel block.

Jan 16 (Reuters) - UK-based oil explorer Gulf Keystone told a conference last week it expected to raise $350-$500 million from the sale of its stake in a Kurdish oil block, according to an analyst's note.

Kurdistan Oil Frenzy

2012-01-10T07:27:00.000-08:00

Kurdistan Oil Frenzy

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/longford-energy-inc-to-resume-trading-2012-01-09

press release

Jan. 9, 2012, 1:02 p.m. EST

Longford Energy Inc. to Resume Trading

CALGARY, ALBERTA, Jan 09, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Longford Energy Inc. /quotes/zigman/495542 CA:LFD -6.06% ("Longford" or the "Company") announces that its shares will resume trading today and notes the speculation with regard to a possible transaction with Genel Energy plc ("Genel") in relation to the potential sale by Longford of its interest in the Chia Surkh block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Longford confirms that it is pursuing negotiations with Genel, however there is no certainty that these negotiations will result in a transaction. Longford is also in consultation with the Kurdistan Regional Government on their guidance and feedback with respect to the structure of any potential transaction. The Company will update the market if and when there are any material developments.
About Longford Energy Inc.
Longford Energy Inc. is a junior Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company. Longford holds a 40% working interest in the Chia Surkh Block Production Sharing Contract in the Kurdistan Region - Iraq. The Block offers a field development opportunity and multiple exploration prospects.

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Gulf Keystone Rises 12% on Speculation That Company Will Be Sold

By Brian Swint - Jan 10, 2012 2:56 AM PT

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP), an oil and gas explorer in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, rose to a record on speculation that the company will be sold.
Shares climbed as much as 12 percent in London and traded up 11 percent at 245.5 pence as of 10:54 a.m., the highest since listing in 2004. The stock rose 8.6 percent yesterday.
The Bermuda-based company today confirmed that the Kurdistan regional government has the right to buy into the Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel blocks. The Daily Mail newspaper reported that speculation the company will be taken over had been revived after Gulf Keystone last month denied it was in talks with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
“Gulf Keystone will sell up, that’s the consensus,” said Alex Ogbechie, an oil analyst at Fox-Davies Capital Ltd. in London. “It’s just a matter of time. The agreement on provisions of the contracts makes investors a bit more comfortable.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net
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http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4288310/Oil-Gas-SectorGulf-Keystone-shares-rise-after-update-on-Kurdistan-operations.html

Oil & Gas Sector:Gulf Keystone shares rise after update on Kurdistan operations

9 January 2012 | 15:59pm

StockMarketWire.com - Shares in Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) rose after it gave a detailed update on its ongoing exploration and appraisal programme in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

This includes the Shaikan block, a major discovery with independently audited gross oil-in-place volumes of between 8 billion barrels to 13.4 billion barrels calculated on the P90 to P10 basis with a mean value of 10.5 billion barrels.

Gulf Keystone says it continues a well testing programme for the Shaikan-4 appraisal well, drilled 6 km to the west of the Shaikan-1 discovery well, targeting several formations in the Jurassic and Triassic.

One well test in the Triassic has been completed and six further tests are planned. Once the testing programme has been completed in all target formations the Company will make the appropriate announcement.

The Shaikan-5 appraisal well, 6 km to the north-east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, is currently drilling at a measured depth of 1,008 metres.

After slower than expected drilling progress due to temporary hole stability issues encountered in the shallow formations, the well is now drilling ahead to the estimated total depth of 3,500 metres subject to technical conditions.

The Shaikan-6 appraisal well, 9 km to the east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, has drilled to a measured depth of 362 metres and 26-inch casing has been set.

The well will drill to the estimated TD of 3,800 metres subject to technical conditions.

The company says that as part of the ongoing extended well test on the Shaikan block, the output from the Shaikan-1 and 3 EWT facility has been at an average level of 2,520 barrels gross of oil per day from the latter part of November through to the end of 2011, totalling 103,328 barrels gross as of 31 December.

At the end of 2011, Shaikan test production levels were in excess of 4,000 barrels gross of oil per day and are due to increase further after the ongoing upgrade of the Shaikan-1 and 3 EWT facility has been completed and additional test production facilities have been designed and built.

The upgraded and additional EWT facilities will allow test production of Shaikan crude to export specification and a subsequent ramp-up of the company's export operations.

Gulf Keystone is the operator of the Shaikan block with a working interest of 75% and is partnered with Kalegran Ltd, a subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas, and Texas Keystone Inc which have working interests of 20% and 5% respectively.

Gulf Keystone says that according to the operator's Akri-Bijeel block operational update and 2012 outlook issued on 28 December, the exploration and appraisal programme will continue with two exploration wells (Barkman-1 and Gulak-1) and four appraisal wells (Aqra-1, Bijell-2, Qalati-1 and Qandagul-1) to be drilled in 2012.

Following the completion of the Bekhme-1 exploration well testing programme, after the well reached TD at 5,000 metres in the Triassic, the rig is currently moving to the Aqra-1 appraisal well drilling location with the well expected to be tested in the second half of 2012.

While no commercial inflow of hydrocarbons was encountered in Bekhme-1, new data gained during the well testing programme is a significant contribution to the continuously improving knowledge of this unexplored region, decreasing uncertainty for the remaining Akri-Bijeel prospects.

In addition to the envisaged acquisition of a significant amount of 3D seismic data over the Bijell discovery area, an extended well test is planned for the Bijell-1 discovery well in 2012, similar to the ongoing successful Shaikan-1 & 3 extended well test.

The operator plans to build a surface facility with 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent gross capacity and a 30,000 barrels storage capacity by the third quarter of 2012.

Gulf Keystone has a 20% working interest in the Akri-Bijeel block operated by Kalegran.

Gulf Keystone says the first exploration well on the Ber Bahr block is drilling at a measured depth of 2,418 metres in the Triassic to the estimated TD of 3,000 metres subject to technical conditions.

Gulf Keystone has a 40% working interest in the Ber Bahr block operated by Genel Energy.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/genelenergy-idUSL6E8CA0IY20120110

UPDATE 1-Genel says to pump more oil from Kurdistan field

Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:05am EST

* To lift production to 100,000 bopd from 60,000

* Recent report upgraded reserves

Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil firm Genel Energy said it planned to pump significantly more oil by the end of 2012 by expanding facilities at its oil field in Kurdistan.

The company, established last year when the bid vehicle of former BP chief executive Tony Hayward bought Turkey's Genel Enerji, said that it aimed to lift production from the Tawke field to 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the end of 2012 from the current level of around 60,000 bopd.

Genel's confidence in being able to pump more oil from the Tawke field was boosted by a recent independent report which found proved and probable reserves were 78 percent higher than previously thought, at 509 million barrels of oil.

Norwegian oil firm DNO, the operator of the Tawke field and Genel's partner, said in July 2011 that the field had "ultimate" recoverable reserves of 636 million barrels.

DNO's Head of Exploration, Tore Lilloe-Olsen, told an investor conference on Monday that the field could pump 100,000 bopd after improvements planned for this year.

He added that the field had a "realistic mid term capacity" of 200,000 bopd, according to a copy of the presentation posted on DNO's website.

Genel and its partners DNO and the Kurdistan Regional Government will upgrade the pipeline and plant facilities and drill five more wells to reach the higher production target, Genel said on Tuesday.

Shares in Genel closed at 754.5 pence on Monday, valuing the firm at 1.4 billion pounds ($2.16 billion).

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Oil shifts - expect tremours - Iran and Indexes re-jig

2012-01-09T08:11:00.000-08:00

Expect tremours in the oil markets:

click on link for full story

https://customers.reuters.com/community/newsletters/oil/InsideOil20120109.pdf

West readies oil stocks release, Iran plans war

games

By Robin Pomeroy and Peg Mackey

TEHRAN/LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Iran announced on

Friday new military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, but

the West has readied plans to use strategic oil stocks to

replace almost all Gulf oil lost if Iran blocks the waterway,

industry sources and diplomats told Reuters.

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Oil markets brace for turbulence of index shift

By Joshua Schneyer and Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Amid the drama of Iran, the

meltdown of refiner Petroplus and a wave of upbeat economic

data, it was all too easy to overlook one of the most

important short-term factors shaping oil markets this

week: the reweighting of the world's biggest commodity

indexes.

The S&P GSCI Index and the DJ-UBS Index, the world's no.

1 and no. 2 commodity indexes, announced two months

ago plans to rejig their component weights to reflect growing

trade in European benchmark Brent crude, at the expense

of U.S. WTI, which some traders say had become

detached from global prices.

The transition is now nigh: over the course of five days next

week, pension funds and investors who have an estimated

$180 billion tracking those indexes will transfer their holdings

from prompt futures contracts into later months.

Oil Shale - Theme for 2012

2012-01-09T07:37:00.000-08:00

Theme for 2012 - Shale Oil explorers

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Shale Bubble Inflates on Near-Record Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-09/shale-bubble-inflates-on-near-record-prices-for-untested-fields.html

Surging prices for oil and gas shales, in at least one case rising 10-fold in five weeks, are raising concern of a bubble as valuations of drilling acreage approach the peak set before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Chinese, French and Japanese energy explorers committed more than $8 billion in the past two weeks to shale-rock formations from Pennsylvania to Texas after 2011 set records for international average crude prices and U.S. gas demand. As competition among buyers intensifies, overseas investors are paying top dollar for fields where too few wells have been drilled to assess potential production, said Sven Del Pozzo, a senior equity analyst at IHS Inc. (IHS)
Marubeni Corp. (8002), the Japanese commodity trader, last week agreed to pay as much as $25,000 an acre for a stake in Hunt Oil Co.’s Eagle Ford shale property in Texas. The price, which includes future drilling costs, exceeds the $21,000 an acre Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) paid last year for nearby prospects owned by KKR (KKR) & Co.’s Hilcorp Resources Holdings LP. In the Utica shale of Ohio and Pennsylvania, deal prices jumped 10-fold in five weeks to almost $15,000 an acre, according to IHS figures.
“I don’t feel confident that the prices being paid now are justified,” Del Pozzo said in a telephone interview from Norwalk, Connecticut. “I’m wary.”

Vast New Resources

The world’s largest energy producers, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), are revisiting onshore U.S. prospects passed by in recent decades in favor of deep-water finds in West Africa and the Gulf of Mexico. New drilling techniques developed in the Barnett shale of north Texas have enabled companies to crack previously-impervious formations.
Overseas explorers such as China Petrochemical Corp. and Total SA (FP) want to learn from U.S. partners so they can exploit vast shale resources in Europe and Asia, said Mark Hanson, an analyst at Morningstar LLC in Chicago.
The U.S. holds an estimated 2,543 trillion cubic feet of gas, enough to meet domestic demand for more than a century at current rates of consumption, according to the Energy Department in Washington. Shale accounts for 862 trillion of that total, or 34 percent. In China, shale formations hold an estimated 1,275 trillion cubic feet of gas, 12 times as much as the nation’s so- called conventional fields.

Buying to Continue

The buying spree is likely to continue because international oil producers are eager to amass reserves in the U.S., which surpassed Russia in 2010 as the world’s largest source of gas, said Christian O’Neill, an analyst at Bloomberg Industries in Princeton, New Jersey.
Oil production also has blossomed in the world’s largest economy, rising to a 9-year high of 5.78 million barrels a day in October, the most recent month for which the Energy Department in Washington has figures.
Hunt, the closely held Dallas company founded by Texas tycoon H.L. Hunt in 1934, has only drilled “a handful” of wells in its Eagle Ford shale acreage, which means it doesn’t yet know how extensive or rich those holdings are, Del Pozzo said. Similarly, because drilling in the Utica shale in the U.S. northeast still is in its infancy, the geological characteristics and potential bounty of the region are hard to assess, said Manuj Nikhanj, head of energy research at ITG Investment Research Inc.
“The big risk is that people are jumping in with both feet too early,” Nikhanj said in a telephone interview from Calgary. “Of course, the other side of that is that if they wait, they risk missing out on what could turn out to be a big deal.”
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2012 comes in with a strong oil theme.

Keystone pipeline delayed until after Presidential election.
- Alberta Bakken Oil explorers affected.

Surging interests in Kurdistan Oil explorers.
- check the previous postings for Westernzagros, Vast, Longford

More research required here..........the Goombarh.

Shoal Point Energy - Oil Test, Newfoundland

2012-01-09T06:50:00.000-08:00

Shoal Point Energy Ltd. Announces Commencement of Drilling Operations and Closing of Additional Financing.

Shoal Point Energy Ltd SHP

1/5/2012 7:00:00 AM

Shoal Point Energy Ltd. Announces Commencement of Drilling Operations and Closing of Additional Financing.

(via Thenewswire.ca)

Toronto, ON: Shoal Point Energy Ltd. (the "Company" or "Shoal Point") (SHP on CNSX) announces that it has commenced drilling operations and has closed additional financing.

Operational Update

Shoal Point is pleased to announce that drilling operations have commenced at the Shoal Point 3K39z well, at Shoal Point, Port au Port Bay, Newfoundland. The borehole has been drilled to a measured depth of 1745 metres, and is cased to a measured depth of 1711 metres. Liquid hydrocarbon shows were recorded over the entire gross section of the well below about 700 metres, primarily in the form of gas chromatography/mud gas indicators, blue-white fluorescence in rock cuttings cut in solvent, oil-stained core, and petrophysics.

The current program is scheduled to set a whipstock, sidetrack, and deepen the current borehole to near the base of the Ordovician Green Point Formation, the primary target of the current exploration program. The evaluation program will involve the flow testing of up to five zones, including (1) a lower open-hole test in new hole, (2) a cased-hole extended formation leak-off (injection) test, and (3) up to three cased-hole perforation flow tests.

The lower open-hole test is designed to assess the natural flow properties and hydrocarbon saturation of newly-drilled (un-invaded) formation near the base of the well. The leak-off test is designed to assess the matrix rock properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the formation, as identified by NuTech, our petrophysical consultants, so that programs for stimulation of the Green Point Formation may be designed in the future. The cased-hole perforation flow tests are designed to assess the hydrocarbon saturation and the unstimulated natural flow potential of the formation which arises from a high concentration of bedding-parallel natural fractures, as interpreted by NuTech and the Company's geological team from logs, core and gas chromatography data. One of these fractured zones indicated potential permeability on a short open-hole Closed Chamber Test carried out during the initial drilling of the well, as reported by the company on June 24, 2011.

http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8394485

Photos @:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=11925&mn=28250&pt=msg&mid=11266363

Stock prices @:
http://cnsx.ca/Page.asp?PageID=2013&AA_RecordID=344

chart @:
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/cnsx.show_chart?pl_primary_listing=SHP-CN&iaction=Generate&pl_period=12D

more info on this guy @:
http://www.investorideas.com/Research/PDFs/2011/SHP_110211.pdf

===============================================
The Goombarh holds this one, tucked away and almost forgot about it.

Nice movement upwards now...bright prospects for 2012

Westernzagros Updates on Kurdistan Oil drilling

2012-01-09T06:44:00.000-08:00

http://cnrp.ccnmatthews.com/client/westernzagros/release.jsp?actionFor=1552801
=============================

JAN 9, 2012 - 04:40 ET

WesternZagros Provides Operational Update

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 9, 2012) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

WesternZagros Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:WZR) ("WesternZagros" or "the Company") is pleased to provide an operational update for the drilling and testing operations at Mil Qasim-1 and Kurdamir-2, and the continued production from the Sarqala-1 extended well test.

Mil Qasim-1 Exploration Well (Garmian Block)

The Mil Qasim-1 well was cased to a depth of 2,129 metres and successfully drilled and wirelined logged to a final total depth of 2,425 metres. The planned testing program of the Upper Fars sandstone reservoir is ongoing. An initial open hole drillstem test (DST) conducted in the lowermost part of the wellbore successfully flowed oil to surface with no water. A second DST test is presently being performed in the Upper Fars within the lower part of the cased hole section. The Company plans to release final results from the testing program when it is completed.

Kurdamir-2 Exploration Well (Kurdamir Block)

The Kurdamir-2 exploration well has been drilled through the Lower Fars top seal to a depth of approximately 2,270 metres, where the third string of casing will be set above the Oligocene reservoir. Operations, to date, remain on time and on budget. WesternZagros anticipates that the drilling and testing of the Oligocene reservoir will occur in the first quarter of 2012, with the deeper Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs expected to be drilled and tested by the end of the second quarter of 2012.

Sarqala-1 Extended Well Test (Garmian Block)

Oil production from the extended well test of Sarqala-1 continues uninterrupted, averaging over 4,000 bopd in December. This production is refined in local plants under the auspices of the Ministry of Natural Resources.

WesternZagros anticipated production from the extended well test to continue to increase in January and is currently increasing the tank capacity to optimize production and truck loading.

================================================

WZR is being very coy about what they are doing presently.

Could this be because they are scheduled to present at quite a few oil investor's presentations in Europe over the next month?

Whatever the case, the 2012 looks rosy for Westernzagros

Jan 9, 2012

Goombarh

Kurdistan Oils Heat Up - Vast, Westernzagros

2012-01-09T06:40:00.000-08:00

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/tag/genel-energy/

Rumours of Genel Energy Purchase in Chia Surkh

Posted on 08 January 2012. Tags: Chia Surkh, Genel Energy, Kurdistan, Longford Energy

The Sunday Times reports that Genel Energy Plc will announce a deal this week to buy a 40 percent share inLongford Energy‘s Chia Surkh oil field in northern Iraq.

According to the report, the deal would be worth $70 million, and Genel, run by the former CEO of BP, Tony Hayward, declined to comment.

Kurdistan-focused Genel, already has a 20% working interest in the Chia Surkh oil field. The prospect is believed to contain some 305.7 million barrels of oil equivalent.

(Sources: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

===============================================

Longford is next door to Westernzagros' block.

Longford is sister company to Vast Explorations.

The Goombarh holds both Westernzagros and Vast.

Looking for some good news..........sigh....

Jan 9, 2012

China Economic Growth to Continue

2011-12-03T16:57:00.000-08:00

Came across something useful to readers:

==========================================
But after a recent visit to China, I remain staunchly optimistic that it will continue to be the world’s greatest machine for economic expansion. While developed countries bump along with little growth, China’s gross domestic product is expected to increase by 9.2 percent in 2011 and an equally astonishing 8.5 percent next year.
The country pulses with energy and success, a caldron of economic ambition larded with understandable self-confidence.

source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/opinion/will-china-stumble-dont-bet-on-it.html?_r=2

=====================================================
The Goombarh has come back from a quick trip to the Orient, last week also and I have similar feelings about China.

PetroAmerica Oil In Colombia Breaks Out

2011-11-29T13:00:00.000-08:00

Petroamerica (TSX: PTA, OTC: PTAXF) - Breaks Out

Source: http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8374484
==========================================================

Outlook
With Balay-1 and Balay-2 continuing to produce on long-term test the Company is anticipating that it will continue to realize production revenues. Additionally, the Company and partners envisage finalizing the development plan for the Balay discovery, with approval for the first phase expected in the fourth quarter of 2011. Sanctioning of the second development phase will depend on the results of Balay-3 which should enable the joint venture to properly assess the size of the Balay oil discovery.

The Company plans to evaluate and appraise the Las Maracas discovery in 2012. This will include placing the discovery well on long-term test and the drilling of several appraisal wells. Subject to the outcome of the appraisal results, the Company and current partner are committed to fast tracking the development of this discovery. The Las Maracas discovery is viewed to be an extremely positive event for the Company.

The Company will continue its strategy of rationalising the portfolio to leverage some of its high working interest positions into more strategic and cost effective holdings. This strategy, which began with the relinquishment of the COR-12 and COR-14 Blocks early in 2011 and has continued with the sale of the VMM-3 block and equity changes in the El Eden block, is expected to enhance the Company's competitive position by allowing it to free up working capital, recover past costs and to enhance the risk/reward balance of its portfolio. The Company is also considering reducing its working interest positions in the LLA10, CPO1 and SSJN5 blocks.

Furthermore, the Company will participate in an extensive exploration program in 2012 with the drilling of seven exploratory wells targeting net mean unrisked prospective resources of 45 million barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE"). All of the prospects to be drilled in 2012 will be covered by 3D seismic, thereby significantly reducing the exploration risk.

Overall, the 2012 outlook for the Company is expected to be one of rising production and revenues, as the Balay development and Las Maracas appraisal programs get underway, and significant exploration upside exposure by way of a seven well drilling program.

====================================================================

The Goombarh is holding warrants on this one.

The big home run is what they get at Kudamir - Westernzagros in Kurdistan

2011-11-29T07:46:00.000-08:00

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Political+stability+returning+Kurdistan+industry/5746376/story.html

Exxon’s entrance was six weeks after ex-BP PLC chief executive Tony Hayward’s Vallares PLC put up $2.1 billion US to acquire Kurdistan’s largest oil producer, Turkish-based Genel Energy PLC.

The political situation started improving late last year when the Kurds backed an Iraqi national government appointment in December. An oil and gas-sharing pact first drafted in 2007 between Kurdistan and Iraq now anticipated by the end of the year is expected to let oil flow from Kurdistan to other countries, lifting the price per barrel from just over $50 to the global benchmark Brent price — more than $100. The long-standing dispute over how to divide oil revenue meant majors active in Iraq couldn’t drill in the northern region of Kurdistan without penalty, limitations expected to end with the deal closing.

The Exxon development, which raised the ire of the Iraqi government, added a twist. Reuters reported that Baghdad has said any oil deals signed with the Kurdish Regional Government are illegal and has suggested the firm’s contract to develop an oilfield in south Iraq is in jeopardy.

Stevenson predicted mergers and acquisition activity will ramp up as firms look to gain a foothold in Kurdistan, which according to Bloomberg, Kurdistan’s Hawrami said could contain 40 per cent of Iraq’s 115 billion barrels of oil reserves — more than the Gulf of Mexico.

WesternZagros is about a year away from potentially becoming a takeover target, according to Calgary-based analyst Josef Schachter. The company’s highly anticipated Kurdamir-2 (K2) well, being drilled by its operator-partner on one of two Kurdistan blocks for WesternZagros, Calgary’s Talisman Energy Inc., is targeting the Oligocene carbonate reservoir, among the most prolific in Iraq.

“The big home run is what they get at Kurdamir,” Schachter said.

Schachter has a one-year target on the company’s share price of $2.10, far above the closing share price Monday of 72 cents.

WesternZagros, about 20 per cent owned by Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA) since a share purchase late last month, reported third quarter financial results Monday, including a net loss of $2 million.

The firm is producing and selling oil in Kurdistan from its Sarqala-1 well, which it expects will produce 5,000 barrels per day before the end of 2011. WesternZagros has more than 3.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent per day of audited prospective reserves, more than half of that crude oil.

Exxon, Iraq and Kurdistan - Future

2011-11-25T08:05:00.000-08:00

Analysis: Exxon Kurdistan foray tests Iraq's centralist resolve

By Patrick Markey

BAGHDAD | Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:10pm EST

(Reuters) - Exxon Mobil's venture into Iraqi Kurdistan challenges Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's resolve against growing regional separatism and tests the investment strategy of the oil majors in Iraq.

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/24/us-exxon-iraq-idUSTRE7AN1GC20111124?type=GCA-GreenBusiness&feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-GreenBusiness&rpc=43

In the Goombarh's opinion, it would be worthwhile to put a few Kurd oil explorers in your pocket, and await the resolving of a few political issues, which seem on the way to resolving.

Ethiopian Potash - FED.v, ETPHF

2011-11-23T23:22:00.000-08:00

Goombarh 72 - November 23, 2011

Good Day,

Have not sent anything for a couple of months. Just sitting tight and waiting.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan oils have come awaken. I hold Westernzagros (WZR.v, WZGRF) and Vast Explorations (VST.v, VSTFF). There are some notes referring to recent press news on the Goombarh's blog site.

Yesterday, Allana Resources posted this news release: http://www.stockhouse.com/financialtools/sn_newsreleases.aspx?qm_symbol=T.AAA&newsid=8373373

After-tax Net Present Value of US $1.85 billion; - After-tax Internal Rate of Return of 36.8%; - Total development capital expenditures including mining, processing facilities, port and logistics infrastructure ("CAPEX") of US $796 million; - Total operating expenditures ("OPEX") on a per tonne basis (including production, transportation/handling, port, loading costs) FOB on the Vessel of US $90.54 - PEA is based on Annual Production of one million tonnes of MOP per year using solution mining; - Potential to expand production to two million tonnes per year of MOP; - SOP production potential to be examined during the ongoing feasibility study.

Allana is next door to a Goombarh holding, Ethiopian Potash (FED.v, ETPHF). FED's drilling presently for their own PEA due maybe Q2 2012. However, the Allana enthusiasm was enough to wake up FED. Here is FED's chart:

Ethiopian Potash seems to have bottomed and now broken out upwards. I hold many warrants.

Good Luck to you all!

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Future of Oil in Kurdistan - Bright

2011-11-22T08:31:00.000-08:00

The future of oil in Kurdistan

By Javier Blas in Erbil, northern Iraq

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13d2ef50-11c7-11e1-9d4d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1eS71Ltny

I have spent the past few days touring the oil-rich semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, visiting oilfields and interviewing its officials and foreign executives. It is boom time for Kurdistan, which optimists hope could soon produce more oil than some members of Opec. As I am leaving, Kurdistan is celebrating thearrival of ExxonMobil, the first of the so-called supermajors to enter the territory to explore for oil.

But the future will not be a simple trajectory.

Exploration success. The oil and gas map of Kurdistan five years ago was largely blank. Today, dozens of oilfields dot it as companies discover hydrocarbons in commercial quantities in eight of every ten wells they drill. But drilling is not as easy as it appeared to be a few years ago, due to the complex geology of the region, and budgets are overrunning by more than a third in some cases.

continues here:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/13d2ef50-11c7-11e1-9d4d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1e4Ofchr1

Kurdistan and Iraq Oil Agreement

2011-11-13T18:16:00.000-08:00

...it seems things are looking good for Kurdish oil plays:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Iraq-Agreement-Made-With-bloomberg-1981391052.html?x=0&l=1

The accord will be approved by the Iraqi parliamentâs Oil and Energy Committee as soon as itâs received, committee member Bahaa al-Din Ahmad was cited as saying in the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty article.

The agreement âneither undermined the powers of the central government nor undercut the rights ofâ the Kurdish authority, Ahmad said, according to the article.

Kurdistan includes three regions in the countryâs north: Erbil, Dohuk and Suleimaniah, governed by an elected parliament and 19 government ministries overseeing everything from agriculture to education to tourism, according to the regional authorityâs website.

The central government counts the Kurdistan Regional Authority as one of its 19 administrative divisions, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agencyâs website.

The accord has ended the risk that foreign oil producers such as Exxon, Marathon Oil Corp. and Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP) would be stripped of some oilfield projects as punishment for signing contracts in the Kurdish-controlled region, two people familiar with the talks told Bloomberg News yesterday.

Exxon, the worldâs biggest company by market value, is the latest Western entrant into Kurdistan. Others include Vallares Plc, the explorer founded by former BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, Afren Plc (AFR), Hess Corp., Murphy Oil Corp., Marathon Oil Corp. and Repsol YPF SA.

Kurdistan and Iraq Oil Agreements

2011-11-13T18:09:00.000-08:00

....It seems the future looks bright for Kurdish oil plays:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Iraq-Agreement-Made-With-bloomberg-1981391052.html?x=0&l=1

The agreement âneither undermined the powers of the central government nor undercut the rights ofâ the Kurdish authority, Ahmad said, according to the article.

The central government counts the Kurdistan Regional Authority as one of its 19 administrative divisions, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agencyâs website.

Big Oil Moving In On Kurdistan

2011-11-13T06:54:00.000-08:00

With the declining oil resources around the world, Kurdistan is one of the final frontiers, where there are huge possibilities.

This is demonstrated by the recent moves of Exxon Mobil and Chevron as indicated in the reports below:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/13/exxon-kurdistan-idUSL5E7MD04G20111113

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chevron-to-join-slick-of-oil-supermajors-in-kurdistan-6261405.html

The above news has added about 80% to the stock price of Vast Exploration (VST:TSX) and 10% to Westernzagros (WZR:TSX), the smaller explorers that the Goombarh owns.

Other larger companies such as Gulf Keystone have soared up to 25% on this news.

Oil Prices high and going higher

2011-10-20T19:07:00.000-07:00

From a comment to an article about Middle Eastern changes:

I recently spent an evening with Ambassador Richard Jones, the Deputy Executive Director of the International Energy Agency in Paris, who had some eye opening things to say about the energy space. The IEA was first set up as a counterweight to OPEC during the oil crisis in 1974, and has since evolved into a top drawer energy research organization.

World GDP will grow an average 3.1%/year through 2030, driving oil demand from the current 84 million barrels/day to 103 million b/d. That means we will have to find the equivalent of six Saudi Arabia’s to fill the gap or prices are going up, possibly a lot. His conservative target has crude at $190 in twenty years. Some 39% of that increase in demand will come from China and 15% from India.

A collapse in investment caused by the financial crisis means that supply can’t recover in time to avoid another price spike. More than 1.5 billion people today don’t have electricity at all, but would love to have it. The best the climate negotiations can hope for is for CO2 to rise until 2020, and then plateau after that, because once this greenhouse gas enters the atmosphere it is very hard to get out.

This will require a massive decarbonization effort reliant on nuclear, hydro, alternatives, and carbon capture and storage. Up to half of the needed carbon reduction can be achieved through simple efficiency measures, like ditching the incandescent light bulb, driving more hybrids, and closing dirty, old coal fired power plants. Natural gas will be a vital bridge, as it is cheap, in abundant supply, and emits only half the carbon of traditional fossil fuels. The total 20 year bill for the rebuilding of our new energy infrastructure will exceed $10 trillion.
Richard, who comes from a long diplomatic career in Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Israel, certainly didn’t pull any punches. I have been a huge fan of the IEA’s data for 35 years. Better use any weakness in oil prices to accumulate long term positions in crude through the futures, the offshore drilling companies like Transocean (RIG), and oil and gas plays, and (OXY) (click here for the link). When oil comes back, it will do so with a vengeance.

TheMadHedgeFundTrader

http://seekingalpha.com/article/249974-egypt-today-saudi-arabia-tomorrow?v=1298903842&source=tracking_notify

The Goombarh deems this very important to understand what is driving oil/energy prices.

Marco G.

Two Kurdistan oils and Market Turns

2011-10-18T08:38:00.001-07:00

Two Kurdistan oils and Market Turns

TAQA takes stake in WesternZagros before new well

Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:57pm EDT

* Abu Dhabi company invests $46.6 mln to take 19.9 pct

* WesternZagros can now fund Sarqala-2

* CEO says he did not speak to Tony Hayward's group

* Shares jump 17 pct

By Jeffrey Jones

CALGARY, Alberta, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi National Energy Co will invest C$46.6 million ($46 million) in WesternZagros Resources , giving the Canadian-based oil explorer much-needed financial breathing room as drilling draws near for its next big well in Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

Shares in WesternZagros jumped more than 17 percent on the small-cap TSX Venture Exchange on Monday after the Abu Dhabi company, known as TAQA, agreed to take a 19.9 percent stake.

...rest of the report is here @ Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/17/westernzagros-shares-idUSL3E7LH2NZ20111017

The Goombarh feels slightly vindicated, as his investing in Westernzagros (TSX: WZR) has just received a vote of confidence from a connected Middle Eastern Oil company, yet his investment in Vast Exploration (TSX: VST) has tanked, from their uneconomic well in Qara Dagh.

My moves forward from this is that I am holding onto both of these oil explorations; one because of the above news and the other, is because I would be a buyer at these prices (.04~.05 cents). For those of you who were influenced by me, and have loss money, I am sorry, for those of you who have not, well here are two prime suspects for price appreciation.

Now, as to the general markets, it looks like the worm has turned, so to speak. The bottom may have been a week and a half ago. Note, that the Goombarh, as usual was overly optimistic and called the bottom a month or more ago. Whatever the case, now is the time to be getting back in, if you are not already back in. The gains you make are dependent upon your entry prices to your investments; the entry prices presently are very good.

Here's to a good fall, what's left of it,

Marco G.

Fisher and the Goombarh Bullish

2011-10-06T09:10:00.000-07:00

Ken Fisher is a noted billionaire and financial advisor for the wealthy. Though he is criticized for being a pernenial bull, his firm's analysis of the macro economic situation always makes good sense, at least to the Goombarh.

Following is a capsule summary of his latest quarterly analysis.

Click on the link to download the full report.

http://goombarh.fileave.com/Fisher%20Oct%202011.pdf

As for my stocks, quite a few have crashed, in fact the whole portfolio has cratered, but I can not sell at the lows. Therefore, I am still sitting tight from my summer positioning and grinning and bearing it.

Vast finds oil field and shares tank

2011-09-30T07:06:00.000-07:00

The good news is that they found an oil field with possible oil.

The bad news is that they cannot exploit this with this impermeable well.

Oh well, the share price dropped 60%. I am holding.

Marco G.

http://www.alphatrade.com/news/stories/AM/2011-09-29/CCN/201109291630CCNMATHWCANADAPR_0732068001.html

Rise in Fall for Junior Oils

2011-09-25T10:15:00.000-07:00

Goombarh 71 - September 25, 2011

Good Day,

I have not sent any notes recently, because I have nothing to say. I notice that it has been over one month since my last note and it is now officially fall. In fact, I may not have made any trades at all for the last 3/4 weeks. The markets are roiled, but it is just that, eventually everything will get straightened up and it will be business as usual, the world is not coming to an end. What will happen is continued slow growth in developed markets and faster growth in developing markets.

Following is quite a rational piece by Jeff Miller, about the likelihood of an upcoming recession:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295701-weighing-the-week-ahead-how-likely-is-a-recession

You know me, I am an optimist, and I am positioned for a rise this fall. I am sitting tight and just waiting, with my junior oils and such.

For those of you, that are fortunate enough to have some cash available, there are just so many bargains in the markets presently. This is your second chance, since March 2009, to make a killing on superior stocks.

Good Luck to you all!

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Oil in Kurdistan

2011-09-18T10:01:00.000-07:00

Oil in Kurdistan

Westernzagros new corporate presentation:

http://www.westernzagros.com/documents/CorporatePresentationSept2011.pdf

Their Sep 8 PR states 1,900 metres of oil and gas strata at their Kudamir 1 well:
http://cnrp.ccnmatthews.com/client/westernzagros/release.jsp?actionFor=1496433

If this is not an elephant oil field in the making...only waiting for politics to subside and agreements to be finalized.

Marco G.

Niko Resources, Vast Exploration's partner - Podcast

2011-09-15T21:38:00.000-07:00

Sampson, Niko CEO says they are at TD and ready to start testing:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=3641440

Kurdistan Oils, Westernzagros Resources - WZR, WZGRF and Vast Explorations - VST, VSTFF

2011-09-09T09:49:00.001-07:00

Kurdistan Oils, Westernzagros Resources - WZR, WZGRF and Vast Explorations - VST, VSTFF

With the beginnings of interest in Kurd oils with former BP CEO Tony Hayward stirring interest there with his new Vallares buyout of Genel Energy.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e022e024-d96e-11e0-b52f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XTYfjqEV

Map of southern part of Kurdistan and the oil/gas explorations:

map source: http://www.shamaranpetroleum.com/i/pdf/Kurdistan_Oil_Gas_Activity.pdf

FWIW, here are my two Kurdistan Oil holdings:

Westernzagros Resources - WZR, WZGRF

partnered with Talisman
found gas at Kudamir 1 and oil at Sarqala 1
Talisman is drilling Kudamir 2

Here is an IR brief of Westernzagros with the CEO talking:

Latest PR from Westernzagros: http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8300010

WesternZagros's Lab Tests Show 1,900 Metres of Oil and Gas Interval in Kurdamir-1 Well

Westernzagros Resources Ltd WZR

9/8/2011 5:30:00 AM

CALGARY, ALBERTA, Sep 8, 2011 (Marketwire via COMTEX News Network) --

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

WesternZagros Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:WZR) ("WesternZagros" or "the Company") has received encouraging results from a recently-completed study of the drill cuttings from its Kurdamir-1 well utilizing advanced technology. The study, by Weatherford Laboratories in Houston, confirmed the potential of a gross oil and gas interval over 1,900 metres thick in the Kurdamir-1 well. These results significantly increase the Company's confidence of encountering oil in the Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs in the upcoming Kurdamir-2 well, which would add to the oil already encountered in the Oligocene reservoir.

WesternZagros expects Kurdamir-2 to be spudded in the fourth quarter of 2011 on the Company's Kurdamir Block which is operated by Talisman. Kurdamir-2 is located approximately two kilometres away from Kurdamir-1 and will target the Oligocene, Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs on the flank of the structure where the combined potential oil interval is likely at maximum thickness. The combined audited mean estimate for all three reservoirs is 585 million barrels of prospective oil resources as at January 14, 2011.

The advanced geochemical study was comprised of both Total Scanning Fluorescence (TSF) and Thermal Extraction Gas Chromatography (TEGC) analyses of approximately 100 drill cutting samples and six oil and condensate samples from the Kurdamir-1 well. TSF is a technique applied to organic solvents from drill cuttings by exciting a sample using UV light and measuring its fluorescence intensity. TEGC provides a rapid automated determination of hydrocarbon compounds. In combination, these techniques can differentiate between oil and gas in potential reservoirs.

"This is a further positive step in our evaluation of the potentially large oil intervals of the Kurdamir discovery," said Simon Hatfield, WesternZagros's Chief Executive Officer. "We are excited by the upcoming opportunity for the Kurdamir-2 well to test the potential for over 580 million barrels of recoverable oil in the Oligocene, Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs."

Vast Explorations - VST, VSTFF

partnered with Niko Resources with Niko drilling
found oil in Qara Dagh, albeit low flow with damaged skin
Niko drilling deeper to test the Kometan formation
results expected within 30 days

PR on hitting oil and drilling deeper: http://www.vastexploration.com/news-releases/view/106/

PRESS RELEASE | July 11, 2011

Vast Exploration Inc. – Provides Drilling Update

Calgary, Alberta, - Vast Exploration Inc. (“Vast” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: VST) is pleased to provide the following update on the Niko Resources Ltd. (“Niko Resources”) operated Qara Dagh Block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Drilling of the Qara Dagh well has reached a total depth of 3,908 meters, has been log evaluated and, as previously reported, the well has been cased to 3,558 meters with a 7 inch casing string. The following intervals have been evaluated where the results to date are summarized below.

Open Hole Interval - Shiranish Formation

This interval from 3,558 meters to 3,908 meters was acidized and flowed light oil confirming an active hydrocarbon column. The interval achieved maximum production rate of 550 barrels of oil per day and 800 mscf/d of gas, although these rates were not sustained for the entire duration of the test. The oil produced is 48 degrees API with no H2S.

From the data interpretation, and the significant spike in observed well bore pressures before the drilling was stopped, it is believed that the well has potentially entered into the first 10 meters of the next reservoir, the Cretacous aged Kometan formation, which is one of the primary target zones previously identified. It is important to note that the Kometan formation is regionally known to be a naturally fractured reservoir which has produced significant quantities of oil.

Mr. Ahmed Said, President & CEO, commented “We are pleased with the recovery of light oil from this section. Although the reservoir quality appears to be naturally tight, the establishment of an oil column is significant. The possibility of drilling deeper to further evaluate production potential of the Kometan formation is currently under consideration.”

Shiranish / Tanjero Interval

Certain sections in this cased interval was perforated and then acidized. The well had intermittent flow of light oil. The maximum rates achieved were 400 barrels per day of 42 to 47 API oil and 520 mscf/d of gas confirming a second active hydrocarbon system with no H2S.

Current Status and Forward Plan

The operator, Niko Resources, is currently in the process of testing the Aalijii Formation which consists of thick sequence of turbidities sand and argillaceous shales. While drilling this section in July 2010, it was reported that an increase in fluorescence, gas readings and free light oil in the mud system was detected.

Further, there are ongoing discussions between the consortium group to possibly deepen the well up to an additional 250 meters, subsequent to the completion of the current testing program. The primary purpose would be to drill deeper to further evaluate the production potential of the proliferous Kometan formation, the zone immediately below the Shiranish formation. Confirmation of the possibility and technical capability of re-entering the well and drilling deeper is expected over the next few weeks.

The Goombarh owns both, with a tilt towards Vast, as it is the lower priced one and with Niko drilling deeper to test the Kometan formation, which has already shown oil in the mud.

Ethiopian Potash - FED, ETPHF - Hits in Drilling by South Boulder Mines

2011-09-08T09:36:00.000-07:00

Now if this is not sweet and funny. Drill results are forthcoming.

Disclosure: I hold Ethiopian Potash.

Good Luck, this looks to be a lower risk play,
Marco G.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=30135129&l=0&r=0&s=FED&t=LIST

RE: RE: RE: Drill program

vectorcan2

8/30/2011 8:43:50 PM | | 248 reads | Post #30135129

Rate this

Received another update from George Roach: Present drilling is both testing of historic holes and expansion of the resource followed by conversion of a significant component of the current drilling program into indicated and measured categories.

George also reported that FED also wish to quickly start drilling Colluli in the central/eastern area of FEDs land holdings. Colluli is the area near South Boulder where there known mineralization both historically and through recent drilling by South Boulder.

That does not refer to drilling by South Boulder on their own land. Rather, South Boulder apparently did some poor mapping and hit mineralization on FEDs land. Apparently, South Boulder was using an old map to determine where the Eritrea/Ethiopia border and that map proved to be inaccurate. Thus, they moved the drills too far south and hit mineralization on FED land.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=FED&t=LIST&m=30148586&l=0&pd=2&r=0

RE: RE: RE: RE: vectorcan

ngobe2

9/3/2011 2:38:56 AM | | 189 reads | Post #30148587

Rate this

South Boulder's Sept. presentation, note p. 7-9 regarding the Colluli Project, resource and targets (Area A and B) practically crossing the border to FED's claims.
http://www.southbouldermines.com.au/images/uploads/110902_Africa_Down_Under_Presentation.pdf
GLTL

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=FED&t=LIST&m=30148071&l=0&pd=2&r=0

RE: RE: RE: RE: vectorcan

vectorcan2

9/3/2011 2:38:04 AM | | 175 reads | Post #30148586

Rate this

Hagai, you are correct. However, the land isn't under dispute any longer. As I wrote, the issue was South Boulder used an inaccurate border map that had since been changed. Doesn't matter what the GPS readings are under that scenario.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=FED&t=LIST&m=30146550&l=0&pd=2&r=0

RE: vectorcan

vectorcan2

9/2/2011 1:26:48 PM | | 121 reads | Post #30146679

Rate this

That's what I was told. South Boulder crossed the border and inadvertently drilled a couple of holes on FED land. As I said, there was reportedly good mineralization. STB had admitted it made a mistake.

Unusual but does happen. I have heard heard about this type of situation happening before.

http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8282743

EPC Drilling Intersects Potash Horizons on Its 481km^2 Danakil Project, Ethiopia

Ethiopian Potash Corp FED

8/22/2011 11:31:25 AM

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Aug 22, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --

Ethiopian Potash Corp. (the "Company " or "EPC") (TSX VENTURE: FED)(TSX VENTURE: FED.WT) is pleased to announce that it has completed five (5) holes and drilling of Hole 6 is ongoing with total drilling through 1,000 metres to date, of the planned 15,000 metre diamond drill program on its 481km2 Danakil Project, Ethiopia.

All of the holes intersected the regional Danakil Potash Formation and all holes intersected potash mineralization.

The holes were drilled along the western edge of the Danakil and targeted the on strike continuation of the Musley potash deposit. The drill core has been logged and selected intersections have been reviewed by Ercosplan who confirmed the intersection as being part of the Regional Danakil Potash bearing sequence and that potash mineralization was observed in the drill core. The drill core has been sampled and the samples are being processed for analysis. Drilling is continuing is the southwest corner of the Property in an area of historic drilling.

Mr. Wahl President and CEO of EPC stated "I am extremely pleased with the drilling results and looks forward to receiving the assay results which will be released on receipt. Ethiopian Potash looks forward to having a steady stream of news to disseminate in the Autumn."

About Ethiopian Potash Corp.

Ethiopian Potash Corp. (TSX VENTURE: FED)(TSX VENTURE: FED.WT) is a Canadian company based in Toronto, Ontario, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ethiopian Potash controls 481 sq km of shallow mineralization potash development concessions in the fairway of the Danakil Depression, Ethiopia. The Company has an existing 128 mil tonne resource at 21% potash and is intent on aggressively fast-tracking its properties to production.

PetroAmerica (PTA, PTAXF) Hits Light Oil in Columbia

2011-08-31T12:45:00.000-07:00

Just posted the previous Flash on site and news from Las Maracas-2 drilling shows up.

Looks like PTA management made some right moves, and could be on the way to being a small oil producer.

If this keeps up, then the small production could fund the further exploration and no more dilution.

Disclosure: Long PetroAmerica

Marco G.

=======================================

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Petroamerica-Discovers-Light-cnw-3080186572.html?x=0&.v=1

Petroamerica Discovers Light Oil with the Las Maracas-2 Sidetrack Exploratory Well, Los Ocarros Block, Colombia

Symbol	Price	Change
PTA.V	0.16	+0.01

Press Release Source: Petroamerica Oil Corp. On Wednesday August 31, 2011, 12:42 pm EDT

CALGARY , Aug. 31, 2011 /CNW/ - Petroamerica Oil Corp. ("Petroamerica") (TSXV:PTA.V) is pleased to announce a light oil discovery with its Las Maracas-2 Sidetrack well ( the "well") on the Los Ocarros Block, in the Llanos Basin of onshore Colombia .

During initial testing, the well produced, under natural flow from a 6-foot perforated interval in the Mirador Formation, light oil (37 degree API) at rates up to 938 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") with bulk sediment and water of 1.3% through a fully open choke size of 2 inches. The well was flowed on clean-up for 24 hours and was shut-in at a fluid rate of approximately 860 bopd with a water-cut of 2%. The pressure build-up analysis shows significant skin damage. More extensive testing with an electro-submersible pump will be performed using a workover rig at a later date. This will provide more information on the well deliverability, reservoir properties and accumulation size. The well has been completed as a future producer.

The petrophysical evaluation of the logs obtained while drilling ("LWD"), indicate a net oil pay thickness in the Mirador Formation of between 30 to 40 feet depending on which cut-off parameters are used and an average porosity of 21%. In addition to the Mirador Formation, drilling to the deeper reservoir objectives of the Gacheta and Une reservoir formations was planned, however, due to operational difficulties resulting from the high deviation angle, the final total depth ended up in the Mirador Formation. Nonetheless, this well has significantly reduced the exploration risk of these deeper reservoir objectives, which will be drilled by a vertical well at some point in the future.

Petroamerica announced on July 4, 2011 , that it had entered into a farm-in agreement with Parex Resources Colombia Ltd. Sucursal ("Parex") to farm-out 50% of its working interest in the Los Ocarros block (the "Farmout") which was derived from a farmout with Talisman ( Colombia ) Oil & Gas Ltd. ("Talisman"), announced on January 4, 2011 . The Las Maracas-2 sidetrack well was drilled as an exclusive operation, with Parex paying the cost of drilling and logging the sidetrack up to a cap of US$7.0 million. The cost of casing, testing and completing the well will be shared equally. Under the terms of the Joint Operating Agreement, the non-consenting party has the right to back-in to the discovery and retain its 50% working interest by paying 1000% of its working interest share of the cost of the exclusive operation to drill and test the Las Maracas-2 sidetrack well. In the event that the non-consenting party decides not to back-in, Petroamerica will hold a 50% working interest in the Las Maracas discovery, and a 25% working interest in the rest of the block.

The transfer of Petroamerica's 50% working interest pursuant to the Talisman farmout remains subject to approval by the Colombian National Hydrocarbon Regulatory Authority (the "ANH"), and the subsequent transfer of 50% of such working interest (net 25%) as part of the above noted farm out, is subject to approval by the ANH.

Petroamerica is a junior oil and gas company operating in Colombia and its shares are listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "PTA".

ON BEHALF OF PETROAMERICA OIL CORP.

" Nelson Navarrete "

President and CEO

PetroAmerica (PTA, PTAXF) - Moving Up

2011-08-31T07:48:00.000-07:00

...Aug 31, 3011 seems to be moving a bit upwards...

===========================

Goombarh Flash 30, August 25, 2011

Bottom Fishing - Dragged up a Billion Share PetroAmerica (PTA, PTAXF)

Good Day,

Just too lazy to build the good case for investment by myself. However, here in these write-ups in the Spring of this year, pumping the PetroAmerica stock, one gets a sense of the company:

Ahead of the Herd - Columbian Oil:

http://www.aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/Colombian%20Oil.pdf

James West in the Midas Letter:

http://www.midasletter.com/news/10011402-Petroamerica-leads-junior-oil-exploration-in-Colombia.php

An article by exclusiveReports:

http://www.newfuelnow.com/commentaries/2011/03/15/world-looks-to-colombia-for-oil-supply/

Short Article in Resource Investor

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/3/Pages/Petroamerica-discovers-Colombian-oil.aspx

And a capsule summary of what's happening recently:

Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA-X0.140.0053.57%) has moved away from a year low of 12 cents on news it has received $2.8-million in oil revenue during the first six months of 2011 from its 15 per cent working interest in the Balay discovery of the LLanos Basin in Columbia. Since beginning long-term testing of the Balay discovery in July 2010, more than 420,000 barrels of oil with an average price of $105.91 a barrel and a per-barrel netback of $65.48. Two new test wells were started on long-term testing during the past week, producing a collective 6,561 barrels per day with negligible water under electro-submersible pump. The oil is being trucked by road although Petroamerica and its partners are now evaluating the logistics needed to transport those quantities of oil.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/small-caps/todays-small-cap-stocks-to-watch/article2112873/page2/

Link to their corporate presentation: http://www.petroamericaoilcorp.com/main/includes/media/pdf/2011-06-15_PTA%20Presentation.pdf

What are the key differences in PetroAmerica now and in the spring, well, there is the stock price for one, as in the chart following:

The stock price is now at the lowest point that it has ever been.

Another is that there was a management ruckus and changeover, where PTA undertook too much and too ambitious a program that their finances could not support, and they have divested out of some projects.

Also, a key alliance with Pacific Rubiales Energy with Pantin on the BOD may now be finished.

And the final factor is the severe dilution with financing in June, 2011 with 150 million shares now giving a 330 million share total and possibly 900 million fully diluted with all the warrants being exercise.

Is the situation that bad? IMHO, no, the management is key, and they appear hard at work in creating value for the shareholders. PetroAmerica still have relationships with Talisman Energy and Petrobras. Their Balay wells are producing and they are expecting news from their Marracus drilling.

So, the Goombarh has taken a position in this bottom fish, with the anticipation of good news coming and the eventual rise in the fall with oil prices moving back higher.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Vast Explorations - VST, VSTFF - Under priced

2011-08-30T07:04:00.000-07:00

Goombarh Flash 31, August 29, 2011

Vast Explorations - VST, VSTFF - Under priced

Good Morning,

Got this note from my friend Hardrock:

Hi friends,

Just posted on Vast forum.

Underpriced, based upon misunderstanding news release.

Just da way I see dat!

HardRock

============================

In case yas dinna understand ma previous post.
Niko is carrying Vast in this drilling.
Vast still owns 34.78% of this prospect.
The previous NR caused share price to tank.
This funny worded NR is hard to understand, but is supposed to clear the situation and allow the price to move back up.
Niko has already started drilling.
If you think, price is going down, stay away. But da Rock thinks price is going to 50 cents soon.
Just da way I see dat!
HardRock
===================================CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - August 29, 2011) - Vast Exploration Inc. ("Vast" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:VST -News) announces that it has entered into an Encumbrance for Financing Agreement ("Financing Agreement") with Nikoresources (Kurdistan) Ltd. ("Niko") in regard to the Qara Dagh Block in Kurdistan. Under the terms of the Financing Agreement Niko will provide financing of US$9,000,000 to be used by Vast to pay outstanding amounts to Niko under a joint operating agreement as well as to fund future expenses related to the deepening of the Qara Dagh well to 4,150 meters. Niko will, additionally, provide financing to Vast in regard to 34.78% of Vast's share of the cost of all operations going forward. "Niko has loaned Vast $9 million to use in funding the deepening of Qara Dagh."
In return, Vast will have the obligation, in the event that a commercial discovery is made and produced, to pay Niko an amount equal to the net proceeds of sale associated with an undivided 12% interest in the Qara Dagh Block. "Vast will pay Niko a dollar amount equal to 12% of block value."
Such financing arrangements have been put in place pending Kurdistan Regional Government approval of the sale by Vast to Niko of an undivided 12% interest in the Qara Dagh Block.
The Financing Agreement with Niko remains subject to receipt of approval, if necessary, of the TSX Venture Exchange.Da Rock concludes that Vast still owns 37.5% share and just owes some money to Niko.
What is not said, is the date of valuation of monies owing. However, the key is still owning 37.5% share of Qara Dagh Well!
Just da way I see dat!
HardRock

Disclosure: I am holding Vast Explorations already.

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Junior Oil Plays - Aug 12, 2011

2011-08-23T16:05:00.000-07:00

Goombarh 69 - August 12, 2011

Good day,

As is all the rage these days, people want to share their "musings", so I will ponder instead of muse. Just not wanting to be part of the larger crowd, it is the contrarian in me.

Firstly, and most important, are the markets going crazy or what; will the markets resume moving? Yes, the markets are forever evolving, and yes, the markets will move upwards. Look at Cisco, which was beaten down and an also ran, reported yesterday and moved upwards over 10%. Look at Europe, which banned short selling, so the markets responded by moving higher, over 5% each. Just a few sporadic examples, but the world is not ending no matter what happens; people just pick themselves up and move forwards. Attached is the latest missive from Ken Fisher, he does not know that I am advertising for him; but his outlook is for a plodding along year, with stock picking rated as important (since when is stock picking not important? I suppose only when the tide rises, then everything moves.).

The main fundamental themes driving the markets should still work. And what are these themes? IMHO they are:

1. Emerging market growth of middle class; especially in Asia. This is just huge, ten-fold increases expected in about 20 years. Analysts call this a secular move.

2. Shift of economy from making stuff to making and sharing knowledge. This makes measurement of economic numbers difficult and employment numbers are bad; because some segments of populations are being left behind. Witness the battle for #1 business giant between Exxon and Apple; oily stuff versus knowledge gadget.

3. Rises in costs for metals, precious metals, commodities, oil, food stuffs. Peak Oil theory here applies to Gold and mining, and all other avenues of human endeavour including farming etc. This is just basic economic theory, supply and demand; when supplies get stretched, further marginal production becomes more costly. For example: prime farmland is used already, to increase production, farmers use less suitable land on hillside, which does not grow as well and more difficult to irrigate etc., the production work is more for less output on the hillsides. This applies to everything from oil to sugar, coffee to REE, Gold to corn.

I think that is enough for big thematic items; in thinking about things, it is no use to get too complicated, simple is easier and quicker to act upon.

Therefore, my action plan, which I have already hinted and noted previously, is that I am moving my investments to where there may be more of a tidal effect, namely undiscovered oil plays. Three plays that I have looked at include the Alberta Bakken, the Nordegg Shale in Western Alberta SW of Edmonton and the Duvernay Shales underlying most of the present Alberta oil zones. The driver is the coming of age of horizontal drilling and fracing for oil and gas. The rage is now to go after not the existing reservoir areas, but the original source rocks where the oil is held tight. Therefore they need to be horizontally drilled and fractured to release their goodies. For the Nordegg, I have bought Anglo-Canadian Oil (AGC, AGDNF) and Donnybrook Energy (DEI, CSTPF) for the Duvernay.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

PS: since this email, I have exited Donnybrook Energy.

Bottom for Summer 2011 is In!

2011-08-21T13:29:00.000-07:00

Goombarh 70 - August 21, 2011

Good Sunday,

Further to my last note of #69, I've thought to add some words to the encouragement of getting readers back into the market. Yes, fear is all around, as depicted by the news media and specifically by some of the analytical postings on Seeking Alpha such as the following:

· http://seekingalpha.com/article/288706-helicopter-ben-and-the-summer-crash-of-2011

· http://seekingalpha.com/article/288557-the-ultimate-jackson-hole-surprise-gdp-targeting

· http://seekingalpha.com/article/288692-recession-is-not-in-view-but-economy-is-ugly

These writers are knowledgeable and well meaning, but the Goombarh thinks they are over analyzing, and they do not give a course of action.

Speaking of action, there are yearly doldrums as depicted across the indices following in the comparison chart, the Venture is the key index that I follow, where the juniors that I invest in are traded, but the S&P 500, the Wiltshire and the TSX are shown as well. Note the green highlighted box showing the summer lows and the swift fall gains. I believe, that this year 2011, the same picture will play out, as I believe the summer bottom is in with the prevalent pessimism out there.

A truism for the best gains is the lowest entry price possible for your stock position. Therefore, the action for investors should be careful placement of your investment positions in stocks that have made their lows for this summer. The gains are coming in September to December.

As I have completely revamped my own portfolio and am now positioned for the possible fall rising, I thought it would be remiss of me to not mention that to you people, so therefore, now I have mentioned it. Good luck.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

New Shale Prospect - Shoal Point Energy - SHP on CNQ Exchange

2011-08-17T10:37:00.000-07:00

Goombarh Flash 29, August 17, 2011

New Shale Prospect - Shoal Point Energy - SHP on CNQ Exchange

Good Day,

Found another compelling prospect. Shoal Point seems to be drilling and testing on old oil property with very thick shale and siltstone layers, over 100's of meters thick, due to folding from geologic action. The shales also appear to have large and minute fractures.

The Goombarh interprets from his reasearch, that Shoal have found oil for sure. The only variable is whether they can economically recover it. The basin that they are in is large, in the billions of barrels contained, and they have lots of ground in area. Now with the shales being so thick and interspersed with siltstone, and being possibly fractured already, this is a very compelling situation. The oil may flow freely. They already seem to say that the oil flow is in the range of 100's of barrels per day without further fracking.

Link to their corporate presentation:

http://shoalpointenergy.com/pdfs/SEPAC%20presentation%20May%2031%202011.pdf

Link to their well testing news:

http://www.cnq.ca/Storage/1379/125665_Shoal_Point_-_press_release_-_July_26_2011-3.pdf

This is not an easy stock to buy, as the CNQ is unquoted and very illiquid. I am in process of accumulating a position. Share price is around .20 Cdn.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

PS:

International Frontier Resources has moved up 50% from last Flash and holding tough.

Primary Petroleum is moving today up 25%

Anglo Canadian Oil moved up on news a few days ago.

Donnybrook Energy is moving slowly on low volume.

In Summary, there is a starting recognition of Shale oil plays in North America. This is early days for some of these plays. Check Seeking Alpha and search on Shale oil and read the many authors writing about shale oil. Good Luck to you all.

Alberta Bakken Players

2011-08-11T14:09:00.000-07:00

Alberta Bakken Players

Found this Bank of Montreal Research Report date April 6, 2011, from browsing in my portfolio companies websites, and felt this deserved sharing.

Here's a list of rationale on why investing here makes sense:

Click on the hyperlink below to access the whole report:

Source BMO PDF file:

Remember, early investors may get the best gains.

Marco G.

Rosetta Alberta Bakken Wells Aug 2011

2011-08-09T06:05:00.000-07:00

Rosetta Presentation Aug 9 2011source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ROSE/1343131722x0x490466/DCE3C07D-278F-4171-B025-6B41A4F73CF3/2Q_2011_Earnings_Release_Call_Presentation_2011_0808_FINAL.pdf pdf

From this presentation, the Goombarh inferrs that Rosetta is proceeding on developing this Alberta Bakken field. This means other players involved in this area should move higher, as they hold valuable property.

Alberta Bakken Results are Confidential But Promising

2011-08-08T09:16:00.000-07:00

Alberta Bakken Results are Confidential But Promising

Thanks to bobsmith1 's posting on Stockhouse.com

Source:

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20110807/NEWS01/108070302

Extract from the recent Aug 6 news article:

Grinnell Day Chief, the Blackfeet Tribe's director of oil and gas.

The tribe, he said, hopes the exploration will lead to recoverable oil. Production would lead to even more local jobs in the oil industry, and the possibility of millions of dollars in royalties.

Results from the exploration are confidential — but promising, he said.

"The success of some of these wells is going to be good," Day Chief said. "We will eventually have some production here."

Rosetta hits Bakken Oil

2011-08-08T08:52:00.000-07:00

Rosetta hits Bakken Oil

Rosetta's Aug 8 financials caught my eye in mentions of the Alberta Bakken drilling.

http://ir.rosettaresources.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=597464

Expanded Southern Alberta Basin horizontal drilling program — Rosetta initiated a three-well horizontal drilling program during the second quarter of 2011 that will continue to test the commerciality of the play. The first horizontal well was spud in the second quarter and drilling operations are now underway on the second and third wells. Rosetta plans to expand the horizontal program to include an additional four wells to be drilled by year end.

. . .

SOUTHERN ALBERTA BASIN

During the first half of 2011, Rosetta completed eight vertical delineation wells on its approximately 300,000 net-acre position in northwest Montana. In total, eleven delineation wells have now been tested. All have encountered oil from multiple reservoirs that produced varying quantities of oil and gas. The vertical delineation wells span a wide area and test results have varied. Based on this variability, some areas of the play will have a higher chance of commerciality than others. While not all vertical testing is complete, production from testing only the Bakken reservoir resulted in an average seven-day rate from all well tests of 22 BOPD and associated gas from these single stage vertical completions.

So in summary, Rosetta is adding 4 new wells by end of 2011 in the Alberta Bakken. Note that they hit oil in all their drilling, and gave an average of 22 BOPD for the whole lot. The Goombarh's interpretation is that Rosetta is being careful and conservative in their choice of words, as these are delineation wells in their own words, and also as test of Bakken reservoir, and single stage, these are not meant for production, but merely to find areas that they will go horizontal and fracture to complete. I am inferring that the variability that they refer to is in how thick the Bakken is at the well and also in terms of the depth and the pressure encountered. Note the rumours of a high pressure sweet spot.

To my understanding, the Bakken is not a good reservoir, as the oil is tight, in other words, the shale has to be broken to allow the oil to slowly leak out from the heat and pressure. The Bakken is not a reservoir at all, but is a source rock for oil, for which it is among the best in the world, with their Total Organic Content (TOC) of up to 60% by weight. Contrast this with other source rocks that are good for oil with a 5 to 10% TOC. The main driver here is that the Bakken oil here has not been released and have not migrated elsewhere, but they are contained in the source rock, the Alberta Basin Bakken.

The thought, is that this is very good news, Bakken is hit everywhere, with the pressure being much higher in certain sections of this play.

Alberta Bakken - Much Potential

2011-08-05T13:35:00.001-07:00

Alberta Bakken - Much Potential

Found a March 2011 report on the region and the players in that area. The report is good background, considering it is now 5 months later. Still, very useful, and I would recommend that investors in the area, should carefully digest the contents.

Extract from this report:

Technical factors in favour of the play:

1. source rock;

2. extensive hydrocarbon saturation;

3. in the oil window;

4. overpressure;

5. fracture enhancement;

6. reservoir;

7. formation penetrations;
8. log, core, cutting, and drill stem test analyses;

9. historical production precedents;

10. recent perforation and test sample;

11. recent production data; and

12. regionalization.

Industry factors that support the play:

1. land acquisition activity;

2. multiple parties;

3. multiple drilling licenses; and

4. Bakken-experienced operators.

Here is the link to the Scotia report on the Alberta Bakken:

http://Goombarh.fileave.com/Scotia_Alberta_Bakken_2011-03-10.pdf

This report only serves to support my own conviction on the potential in this area. I have purchased more shares of juniors in the area.

PS: Found another recent Alberta Bakken presentation at June Petro-Geo Conference, available here:

http://www.cseg.ca/conventions/abstracts/2011/137-The_Alberta_Bakken.pdf

Bakken Frenzy - Rosetta and Newfield Sitting on Good News

2011-08-03T09:34:00.000-07:00

Bakken Frenzy - Rosetta and Newfield Sitting on Good News

Goombarh 66 - August 3, 2011

Good day,

The Goombarh has sensed a developing frenzy in the western Bakken formation, the area of the Alberta Bakken part of the Willingston Basin in Northwestern Monana and Southern Alberta.

Here are some useful links for background information:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903668804576385541571096676.html

http://www.primarypetroleum.com/pdf/PIE_Industry_News_2011-02-07.pdf

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=48494677-8dea-406f-aeb4-883645eeb525

http://seekingalpha.com/article/283677-which-is-the-best-pure-play-bakken-oil-stock

http://www.bakkenblog.com/

http://milliondollarway.blogspot.com/2010/09/publications-regarding-willisotn-basin.html

http://www.oilandgas-investments.com/report/download/Bakken-Torquay-May2011.pdf

http://bakkenstocks.com/oil/

http://www.beatingtheindex.com/the-alberta-bakken-players-in-montana/

http://www.beatingtheindex.com/the-alberta-bakken-oil-play/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2008/05/23/f-langton-bakken.html

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/Resources/WBPetroleumnew.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_formation

As this evolving situation fits my thesis for investment, namely:

1. Big Trend - Oil

2. Smaller Trend - Alberta Bakken

3. Companies with news - Newfield and Rosetta sitting on good news.

4. Smaller priced stocks - Small Alberta Bakken players

5. Marginal players - can only go up; incredible hit percentage for Bakken drillers over 50%. (not like mining at all)

6. Companies judged on growth aspects rather than absolute value.

Therefore I think there will be much room to run for small Bakken stocks. So, I am selling some of my mining, commodities to re-deploy in the following (and I have already taken positions in):

International Frontier Resources (IFR, IFRTF)

Guardian Exploration (GX, GUEXF)

Stetson Oil and Gas (SSN, SSNOF)

Mountainview Energy (MVW, MNVWF)

Primary Petroleum (PIE, PETEF)

Vecta Energy (VER, VCTEF)

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Frontier (TSX: IFR, OTC: IFRTF) More Acreage where Newfield and Rosetta Hitting!

2011-07-28T06:32:00.001-07:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Frontier-Increases-Its-Fee-ccn-4250049300.html?x=0&.v=1

Frontier Increases Its Fee Acreage Position in NW Montana to 22,680 Acres

Thursday July 28, 2011, 9:00 am

. . .

"To date there have been 34 wells licensed, or drilled, in townships where Frontier owns fee acreage, the wells are being drilled by Anschutz, Newfield and Rosetta.

The majority of the Company's acreage is currently under lease to operators drilling in the Blackfeet Reserve, the leases reserve in favor of Frontier gross overriding royalties ranging from 12.50% to 18%. The operator's leases expire at various times over the period 2012 to 2016, to continue a lease beyond the expiry period the operator is required to establish production from the lease. Frontier's fee lands do not expire."

Gotta luv this when, drillers hitting and you hold the land next to them!

Note: IFR does not hold the direct lands where Rosetta and Newfield are drilling, but close by!

Looks like a keeper, more and more.

Good Luck all!

More Dope on International Frontier Resources IFR, IFRTF

2011-07-27T10:05:00.001-07:00

PS: more dope on this:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27521637

From: czechmate

7/27/2011 12:29:26 PM

Read Replies (1) of 6058

Alright, I have posted on here previously on IFR, rumour has it that Rosetta well hit 2300 bbls, IFR has royalties on this and other drillers in area...... its all in this presentation..........

http://www.internationalfrontier.com/i/pdf/Presentation.pdf

To: czechmate who wrote (6051)

7/27/2011 12:38:13 PM

From: diddlysquatz

Read Replies (1) of 6059

I'm in IFR.V as well thanks to you Czechmate and I have heard the same type of rumour of Rosetta success. If it proves to be true IFR ground skyrockets in value. IFR land was purchased for about $180 an acre. MVW.V just purchased some land east of IFR for about $1600 per acre.

If Rosetta has hit this kind of well then IFR land should be worth much more than $1600/acre. IFR has 17,000 acres in the area. Doing the math gives a much higher share price.

HOT TIP - International Frontier Resources - TSX: IFR, OTC: IFRTF

2011-07-27T07:13:00.000-07:00

Goombarh Flash 27, July 27, 2011

International Frontier Resources - TSX: IFR, OTC: IFRTF

Good Morning,

May have found a good tip:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_R/threadview?m=tm&bn=27692&tid=1152&mid=1219&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

According to the Rocky Mountain Oil Journal, a confidential source who had access to Rosetta's field report states Rosetta's first vertical well, Tribal Gunsight #31-16H in Glacier County, "well tested at 1200 barrels per day".

Now, I don't normally pay any attention to tips, but I hold Primary Petroleum (TSX:PIE, OTC:PETEF), which is halted, since it was moving up without news earlier this week. Still halted with no news whatsoever. Primary holds large acreage just below Rosetta in Montana. Rosetta is a $50 stock.

Sniffing around, I found Mountainview was halted previously as well. They are right next to Primary. And Petrohawk was bought out few weeks ago. So all this speaks of frenzy in oil patch, perhaps under valued, and I know drillers are under valued.

Enough digression, I decided to venture a bit of spec funds into International Frontier and have bought. IFR holds royalties in the area, particularly where Rosetta is, see this:

http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/531ifr_drilling.pdf

and this Frontier presentation:

http://www.internationalfrontier.com/i/pdf/Presentation.pdf

I am not recommending you do the same, I am only passing information onwards. It is up to you as what you do with your money. Good Luck to you.

Until next time,

Marco G.

http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/marco-g/articles

Goombarh Confirms that he is part Neanderthal

2011-07-20T19:13:00.000-07:00

Goombarh Confirms that he is part Neanderthal

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-07/uom-grc071411.php

Public release date: 17-Jul-2011
[ Print | E-mail | Share ] [ Close Window ]

Contact: William Raillant-Clark
w.raillant-clark@umontreal.ca
514-343-7593
University of Montreal

Genetic research confirms that non-Africans are part Neanderthal

This release is available in French.

Some of the human X chromosome originates from Neanderthals and is found exclusively in people outside Africa, according to an international team of researchers led by Damian Labuda of the Department of Pediatrics at the University of Montreal and the CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center. The research was published in the July issue of Molecular Biology and Evolution.

"This confirms recent findings suggesting that the two populations interbred," says Dr. Labuda. His team places the timing of such intimate contacts and/or family ties early on, probably at the crossroads of the Middle East.

Neanderthals, whose ancestors left Africa about 400,000 to 800,000 years ago, evolved in what is now mainly France, Spain, Germany and Russia, and are thought to have lived until about 30,000 years ago. Meanwhile, early modern humans left Africa about 80,000 to 50,000 years ago. The question on everyone's mind has always been whether the physically stronger Neanderthals, who possessed the gene for language and may have played the flute, were a separate species or could have interbred with modern humans. The answer is yes, the two lived in close association.

"In addition, because our methods were totally independent of Neanderthal material, we can also conclude that previous results were not influenced by contaminating artifacts," adds Dr. Labuda.

Dr. Labuda and his team almost a decade ago had identified a piece of DNA (called a haplotype) in the human X chromosome that seemed different and whose origins they questioned. When the Neanderthal genome was sequenced in 2010, they quickly compared 6000 chromosomes from all parts of the world to the Neanderthal haplotype. The Neanderthal sequence was present in peoples across all continents, except for sub-Saharan Africa, and including Australia.

"There is little doubt that this haplotype is present because of mating with our ancestors and Neanderthals. This is a very nice result, and further analysis may help determine more details," says Dr. Nick Patterson, of the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard University, a major researcher in human ancestry who was not involved in this study.

"Dr. Labuda and his colleagues were the first to identify a genetic variation in non-Africans that was likely to have come from an archaic population. This was done entirely without the Neanderthal genome sequence, but in light of the Neanderthal sequence, it is now clear that they were absolutely right!" adds Dr. David Reich, a Harvard Medical School geneticist, one of the principal researchers in the Neanderthal genome project.

So, speculates Dr. Labuda, did these exchanges contribute to our success across the world? "Variability is very important for long-term survival of a species," says Dr. Labuda. "Every addition to the genome can be enriching." An interesting match, indeed.

###

About the study:

"An X-linked haplotype of the Neandertal origin is present among all non-African populations" was published in the July 2011 issue of Molecular Biology and Evolution. The authors are Vania Yotova, Jean-Francois Lefebvre, Claudia Moreau, Elias Gbeha, Kristine Hovhannesyan, Stephane Bourgeois, Sandra Be´darida, Luisa Azevedo, Antonio Amorim, Tamara Sarkisian, Patrice Hodonou Avogbe, Nicodeme Chabi, Mamoudou Hama Dicko, Emile Sabiba Kou' Santa Amouzou, Ambaliou Sanni, June Roberts-Thomson, Barry Boettcher, Rodney J. Scott, and Damian Labuda.

The study was supported by grants from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Small Cap Explorers for Fall Bull Run

2011-07-13T08:29:00.000-07:00

For the smaller mining and resources equities, that are riskier, but that have had recent news, I presently hold positions in the following, in alphabetical order:

Avnel Gold Mining (AVNZF, TSX:AVK) is partnered with IAMGOLD (IAG) in their Kalana Gold mine in Mali, Africa. IAMGOLD is the project operator. Recent news.

Compliance Energy (CPYCF, TSX:CEC) is partnered with Itochu Corp. and LG International for 60% of the Raven coal deposit on Vancouver Island, Canada. Compliance also holds 17% of Copper Mountain, which just has started producing copper concentrate. Recent news.

CuOro Resources (CRUOF, TSX:CUA) is drilling a high grade copper/gold sulphide prospect in Columbia. Recent news. The Goombarh believes the history of this property bodes well for the company future.

Ethiopian Potash (ETPHF, TSX:FED) is a potash explorer in the Danakil Basin of Ethiopia. They are adjacent to Allana Potash Corp (ALLRF) and South Boulder Mines (SBMSF) of Australia. The deposit that they are looking to confirm is shallow, suitable for open pit extraction. Recent news.

Primary Petroleum (PETEF, TSX:PIE) is a oil/gas explorer active in the Bakken formation in Alberta and Montana. They hold large sections of prospective properties. Recent news.

Tarsis Resources (TARSF, TSX:TCC) is a gold/metals project generator and explorer active in Mexico and the Yukon. Kinross Gold has taken a 10% share of this company. Recent news.

Tuscany International Drilling(TIDZF, TSX:TID) is a growing drilling services provider focused on South America and Africa. They have just initiated a second acquisition to increase their service potential. The Goombarh believes drilling services equities are much undervalued.

Vast Exploration (VSTFF, TSX:VST) is partnered with NIKO Resources (NKRSF) who is testing their oil/gas prospect in Kurdistan, Iraq. This stock has dropped over 60% on this news release July 11, 2011. The Goombarh has just tripled his holdings, due to the intermittent oil found and possible deepening of hole to test the Kometan formation..

Westernzagros Resources (WZGRF, TSX:WZR) is partnered with Talisman Energy (TLM) and has hit oil in Kurdistan, Iraq. Westernzagros will drilling a their Mil Qasim - 1 prospect in the 3rd quarter and Talisman will be redrilling their Kurdamir 2 prospect by 4th quarter.

The investor is advised to perform their own due diligence as these small cap investments are risky. For investing in these smaller mining and resources equities, I am expecting that most will turn out to dwindle to nothing but if only one exhibits good price appreciation, that will do just fine.

Important Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained within this document reflect the personal views of the author and should be viewed as food for thought and amusement only. The author may from time to time have a position in any of the securities mentioned. There are no guarantees of the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Independent due diligence and discussions with one’s own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. These writings are not to be construed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. We do not request or receive compensation in any form in order to feature companies in this publication. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this document to any type of third party without the express permission of the author. This document may be quoted, in context, provided proper credit is given.

Goombarh's Edge - Findings, Insights & Research for Mining, Oil and Commodity Equities

Happy Investing in 2012

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Frontier (TSX: IFR, OTC: IFRTF) More Acreage where Newfield and Rosetta Hitting!

More Dope on International Frontier Resources IFR, IFRTF

HOT TIP - International Frontier Resources - TSX: IFR, OTC: IFRTF

Goombarh Confirms that he is part Neanderthal

Genetic research confirms that non-Africans are part Neanderthal

Small Cap Explorers for Fall Bull Run